The shadow of Queen Sirikit’s passing, coinciding with a surge in Sino-Thai naval exercises, presents a complex geopolitical challenge, demanding careful assessment of the evolving dynamics within Southeast Asia. This confluence of events underscores the enduring, yet often understated, influence of Thailand’s monarchy and the potential for its relationships to both stabilize and disrupt the regional security landscape.
The recent death of Queen Sirikit, the long-serving Queen Mother of Thailand, has triggered a global outpouring of respect, particularly within the South Asian region. Bhutan, a close ally of Thailand, observed a national day of mourning, reflecting a deeply ingrained tradition of deference to the Thai monarchy. However, this sentiment is occurring concurrently with heightened activity between Thailand and China, specifically concerning naval cooperation and joint military drills. Understanding the interwoven nature of these developments—the historical context of Thai-Bhutan relations, the shifting strategic alignments within Southeast Asia, and the implications of China’s increasingly assertive foreign policy—is critical for policymakers grappling with potential risks and opportunities.
Historical Roots of Thai-Bhutan Ties
The relationship between Thailand and Bhutan dates back centuries, rooted in tributary agreements and mutual defense pacts. The Treaty of Friendship, signed in 1904, established a cornerstone of the two nations’ diplomatic ties, solidifying Bhutan’s status as a protectorate of Siam (now Thailand). This historical pact, largely symbolic by the 21st century, served as a mechanism for Thai influence in Bhutan's foreign policy and strategic decisions. Moreover, Bhutan’s geographical location – a small, landlocked nation bordering China and India – has historically rendered it a strategically valuable asset for Thailand, aiming to counter potential Chinese expansion. This legacy of security cooperation, while officially dormant for decades, continues to subtly shape the current dynamic. “The strategic imperative of containing Chinese influence has been a constant, albeit often unspoken, factor in Thailand's foreign policy,” notes Dr. Anusuya Datta, Senior Research Fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. “The current naval exercises with China are not entirely unexpected, but they do highlight the tension between Thailand’s historical commitments and its evolving strategic calculus.”
China’s Strategic Calculus and the Thailand-China Nexus
Over the past six months, China’s engagement with Thailand has intensified. The Sino-Thai naval exercises, announced in June 2025 and continuing through October, represent a significant escalation of military cooperation. These exercises, held in the Andaman Sea, are ostensibly focused on humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, but analysts believe they also serve as a demonstration of China's growing naval capabilities and strategic reach within Southeast Asia. China’s motivations are multi-faceted. Firstly, it seeks to bolster its economic influence in Thailand, a key partner in the Belt and Road Initiative. Secondly, it is actively seeking to counter India’s growing regional influence and establish itself as the dominant power in Southeast Asia. Thirdly, and perhaps most significantly, the exercises signal China's willingness to challenge the existing regional security architecture, dominated by the United States. “China views Southeast Asia as a crucial bridgehead for its global ambitions,” explains Professor David Shambaugh, Director of the Shambaugh Program on Civilian-Military Relations at the McCourtney Institute for Democracy, University of Iowa. “The Thailand-China relationship is a microcosm of this broader strategic competition.”
The Shifting Landscape of Southeast Asia
The Thailand-China alignment is occurring against a backdrop of broader regional shifts. The United States, while maintaining its traditional security alliances with countries like the Philippines and Vietnam, has struggled to maintain its influence in Southeast Asia. India, meanwhile, is attempting to solidify its role as a leading power in the region, increasing its diplomatic and economic engagement. The Philippines’ recent pivot towards closer ties with China, motivated primarily by economic considerations, further complicates the strategic landscape. The recent announcement of joint infrastructure projects between China and the Philippines, while generating controversy, exemplifies this realignment.
Recent Developments: Escalating Tensions
In August 2025, a Thai naval vessel escorted a Chinese survey ship operating near the disputed South China Sea, despite international pressure on Thailand to maintain neutrality. This action was widely interpreted as a deliberate provocation, designed to demonstrate China's resolve and challenge the US-led efforts to uphold freedom of navigation. Simultaneously, reports surfaced of increased Chinese investment in Thailand’s strategic ports, raising concerns about potential vulnerabilities and the erosion of Thailand’s sovereignty. Furthermore, intelligence reports suggest that China has been quietly bolstering its military presence in areas near the Burmese border, further expanding its strategic footprint.
Looking Ahead: Short-Term and Long-Term Impacts
In the short term (next 6 months), we can anticipate continued escalation of tensions, including further military exercises, increased investment in strategic infrastructure, and heightened diplomatic maneuvering. Thailand will likely continue to walk a tightrope, balancing its historical ties with China and its obligations to its traditional allies. Longer-term (5-10 years), the implications are more profound. A fully aligned Thailand-China relationship could fundamentally reshape the security dynamics of Southeast Asia, potentially leading to a multi-polar order with China and Thailand acting as counterweights to US influence. Conversely, Thailand could revert to its traditional alignment with the US or India, depending on the evolving balance of power. The key will be to assess whether Thailand's strategic priorities – economic development and regional stability – align with those of China or the established Western powers.
Reflection and Debate
The unfolding situation in Southeast Asia demands sustained attention. It's vital to recognize the intricate interplay of historical legacies, geopolitical calculations, and economic interests shaping Thailand’s strategic choices. The question remains: can Thailand successfully navigate this complex terrain, or will its alliance with China prove to be a destabilizing force, contributing to a more fragmented and contested regional order? Let us engage in a robust discussion about the long-term consequences of this evolving dynamic, considering the potential impacts on regional security, economic development, and the future of Southeast Asia.