Historically, Thailand’s foreign policy has been shaped by a pragmatic approach, prioritizing economic interests alongside regional engagement. The establishment of the Thailand-EU Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA), provisionally in force since 2023, exemplifies this strategy. This agreement, encompassing free trade negotiations and broader economic cooperation, represents a significant shift from Thailand’s previously primarily bilateral relationships. Prior to 2023, Thailand’s trade relationships were largely dependent on China, creating vulnerabilities that the PCA aimed to mitigate. However, the PCA is not without complications; the protracted negotiations and potential disagreements on regulatory standards highlight the inherent tensions when pursuing ambitious trade agreements.
Key stakeholders in this complex environment include the European Union, ASEAN member states (particularly Cambodia and Myanmar), China, and the United States. The EU, driven by its economic power and strategic interests in Southeast Asia, represents a crucial partner in Thailand’s growth agenda. Cambodia, with its ongoing border disputes with Thailand, remains a significant security concern. Myanmar, embroiled in a protracted civil conflict and humanitarian crisis, presents a challenge to regional stability and requires delicate diplomatic maneuvering. Within ASEAN, Thailand seeks to maintain a position of influence, advocating for greater regional integration and conflict resolution. China’s expanding economic and military presence in the region adds another layer of complexity, demanding careful calibration of Thailand’s relationships.
Data reveals a concerning trend: a rise in cybercrime and online scams originating from neighboring countries, primarily Myanmar and Cambodia. Interpol estimates that Southeast Asia accounts for approximately 40% of global cybercrime incidents. Thailand’s intelligence agencies are increasingly focused on disrupting these criminal networks, straining diplomatic relations with the source countries, particularly when evidence suggests state-sponsored support. This situation has highlighted the limitations of relying solely on bilateral agreements for security cooperation, forcing Thailand to pursue multi-faceted approaches involving regional organizations and international law enforcement. “Thailand’s strategic focus has been shifting towards proactive measures – utilizing technology and intelligence gathering – to address transnational criminal activities,” noted Dr. Arun Jantharathip, Senior Fellow at the Institute for Strategic Studies in Bangkok, in a recent briefing.
Recent developments over the past six months further illuminate this dynamic. The signing of the joint declaration between Thailand and Cambodia regarding the implementation of the ceasefire agreement in 2024, facilitated by the diplomatic corps, demonstrated a willingness to prioritize de-escalation, though the underlying tensions remain palpable. However, reports of continued border skirmishes and cross-border criminal activity indicate that this agreement is fragile. Furthermore, Thailand’s participation in the 47th ASEAN Leaders’ Summit in Kuala Lumpur and the 32nd APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting in Gyeongju underscored its commitment to regional integration, but also exposed the limitations of ASEAN’s collective action in addressing complex regional challenges like the Myanmar crisis. The continued humanitarian assistance efforts directed toward Myanmar, despite lacking substantial coordinated regional support, demonstrate a growing humanitarian imperative. “Thailand’s humanitarian engagement is partly a strategic move to maintain influence within ASEAN and underscore its role as a regional leader,” explained Professor Sarah Miller, a specialist in Southeast Asian politics at the University of Sydney.
Looking ahead, Thailand’s short-term (next six months) strategy will likely remain focused on managing the Cambodia-Thailand border situation, strengthening cybersecurity cooperation, and navigating the ongoing negotiations for the full implementation of the PCA. Longer-term (5–10 years), Thailand will need to contend with the accelerating influence of China, adapt to the evolving geopolitical landscape in Southeast Asia, and potentially play a more active role in shaping ASEAN’s future. The country’s economic success hinges on continued integration with the global economy, while its security relies on fostering stability within its borders and maintaining constructive relationships with its neighbors. The challenge lies in balancing these competing priorities, a task that will require continued adaptability and a sophisticated understanding of the intricate dynamics shaping the region’s future. Ultimately, Thailand’s ability to successfully navigate these challenges will determine its position as a key player in the 21st-century Indo-Pacific.