The increasing prominence of India within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) represents a complex and potentially transformative shift in global geopolitical alignments. Over the past decade, New Delhi has demonstrably prioritized deepening its relationship with the region, driven by economic opportunities, security concerns, and a broader ambition to reshape the international order. This strategic entanglement, however, is not without its inherent tensions and requires a nuanced understanding of the motivations, vulnerabilities, and potential pitfalls involved for all parties.
Historically, India’s engagement with Southeast Asia was largely constrained by its own developmental challenges and a focus on regional groupings like SAARC. The Cold War further limited its ability to actively cultivate relationships within the ASEAN bloc. However, the post-2008 economic boom, coupled with a recognition of the growing strategic importance of the Indo-Pacific, dramatically altered this trajectory. The ‘Act East’ policy, launched in 2014, formally articulated India’s ambition to strengthen ties with ASEAN, positioning the region as a cornerstone of its foreign policy. This involved increased investment, trade liberalization, and a more assertive diplomatic presence.
Key Stakeholders and Motivations:
Several factors underpin India’s engagement. Economically, ASEAN represents a significant market for Indian goods and services, and a crucial destination for investments. The ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement (AITIGA), currently under review, holds the potential to further unlock economic synergies, although progress has been slow due to disagreements over tariffs and non-tariff barriers. China’s growing economic and political influence in the region is a primary driver of India’s strategy – a calculated counterweight to Beijing’s expanding power. Furthermore, India seeks to enhance its security posture by collaborating with ASEAN members on maritime security, counter-terrorism, and disaster response.
Southeast Asian nations, while welcoming India’s increased engagement, have their own motivations. For countries like Vietnam and the Philippines, India offers a vital alternative to China’s growing dominance, particularly in the South China Sea dispute. Timor Leste’s recent accession to ASEAN highlights the regional bloc’s desire to maintain its centrality and attract new members. However, ASEAN’s principle of non-interference in internal affairs also complicates India’s efforts to address human rights concerns and promote democratic values within the region.
Recent Developments and Shifting Sands:
Over the past six months, the dynamics within the Indo-Pacific have become increasingly fraught. The evolving security situation in Myanmar, following the 2021 coup, has tested India's commitment to ASEAN unity and its ability to leverage its influence. While India has consistently called for a return to democracy, its reluctance to impose sanctions, driven by concerns about disrupting regional trade, has drawn criticism. Simultaneously, heightened tensions in the South China Sea, exacerbated by China's assertive behavior, have seen India and several ASEAN nations reaffirming their commitment to upholding the rules-based maritime order. The ongoing discussions surrounding the AITIGA and the ongoing strategic dialogues demonstrate a persistent, albeit often cumbersome, process of adjustment and compromise.
Looking Ahead:
Short-term, India’s influence within ASEAN will likely remain tied to its response to immediate crises, particularly in Myanmar. The successful implementation of the ASEAN-India Plan of Action 2026-2030, contingent on securing a modernized AITIGA, will be crucial. Longer-term, India's ability to maintain a consistent and reliable strategic partnership will depend on its capacity to navigate the increasingly complex geopolitical landscape. A projected shift in China's economic power coupled with evolving geopolitical alignments could present both opportunities and vulnerabilities for India.
Potential Outcomes:
Within the next six months, we can anticipate continued strategic dialogues and further refinements to the AITIGA framework. However, the pace of progress is likely to remain slow, constrained by the differing priorities and interests of the ASEAN members. Over the next five to ten years, India’s role in the Indo-Pacific is set to become even more significant. A key factor will be India’s ability to foster a broader coalition of partners, including the United States, Japan, and Australia, to effectively counter China’s growing influence. The success of this endeavor will hinge on maintaining a stable and mutually beneficial relationship with ASEAN, predicated on shared values of sovereignty, non-interference, and regional stability. The capacity to effectively manage potential divergences and maintain a delicate balance will be truly tested.