The Indo-Pacific region, once viewed as a maritime domain largely defined by U.S. naval presence, is increasingly characterized by competing strategic interests and a demonstrable decline in multilateralism. The annual ASEAN-Indo-Pacific Forum (AIPF), held in Kuala Lumpur on October 27, 2025, offers a crucial, albeit limited, window into the evolving dynamics of this critical region, particularly through the lens of Indonesia’s strategic ambition to maintain “centrality.” The forum’s discussions, largely centered around economic collaboration and sustainable development, highlight both the potential and the constraints facing Indonesia’s efforts to solidify its role as the dominant force within ASEAN. This event—and the persistent pursuit of the AIPF’s broader goals—is a tangible measure of how effectively ASEAN can navigate the intensifying geopolitical currents.
The Indo-Pacific’s strategic landscape has undergone a significant transformation in recent years. The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, coupled with escalating tensions in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, have diminished the attractiveness of U.S. engagement for many regional actors. Simultaneously, China’s economic and military influence has grown, leading to concerns about a potential Sino-centric order. Indonesia, recognizing these shifts, has aggressively championed the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP) as a counterweight, aiming to foster economic interdependence and regional stability. The AIPF, a key implementation mechanism of the AOIP, is designed to translate this vision into concrete action. The forum’s success is predicated on achieving sustainable economic growth and bolstering regional security—factors increasingly vulnerable to external pressures.
The 2025 AIPF focused on the theme “Advancing Inclusivity and Sustainability in ASEAN and the Indo-Pacific Region,” reflecting a deliberate effort to broaden the forum’s appeal beyond traditional economic partnerships. The event featured two principal panel discussions that examined vital areas for regional development. The first, concerning economic integration with Pacific dialogue partners—including the United States—addressed the ongoing challenge of balancing engagement with Washington’s strategic priorities with Indonesia’s AOIP framework. Representatives from the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) and the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) emphasized the importance of data-driven trade agreements and regulatory harmonization. “Genuine integration requires more than just tariff reductions; it necessitates a shared commitment to compatible standards and transparent governance,” noted Dr. Evelyn Hayes, Senior Fellow at ERIA, following the session. “The United States’ approach to Indo-Pacific engagement needs to be calibrated to acknowledge and respect ASEAN’s inherent architecture.”
The second panel, dedicated to cross-border sustainable development, tackled particularly pertinent issues. This focused on the ASEAN Common Carbon Framework (ACCF), the ASEAN Power Grid, and the expansion of cross-border payment mechanisms—all critical elements in facilitating regional resilience and fostering energy security. The involvement of Bursa Malaysia, the ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE), and DANA Indonesia underscored the strategic importance placed on these initiatives. The ACCF, in particular, is a complex undertaking, aiming to incentivize emissions reductions across the region while simultaneously avoiding punitive measures that could stifle economic growth. “The key to the ACCF’s success lies in creating a level playing field and providing tangible incentives for businesses to transition to low-carbon technologies,” argued Mr. David Lee, Head of Research at ACE. “The framework must avoid becoming a mechanism for imposing Western-style environmental regulations.”
Attendance at the 2025 AIPF totaled over 450 participants, reflecting a significant increase from the inaugural event. This growth indicates a growing awareness of Indonesia’s role in shaping the Indo-Pacific’s future, as well as a broader recognition of the importance of regional cooperation in addressing shared challenges. However, the event also highlighted the limitations of the forum’s scope. The discussions remained largely confined to bilateral and multilateral partnerships, without addressing the underlying geopolitical tensions that threaten the region’s stability.
Looking ahead, the short-term impact of the AIPF is likely to be incremental. Indonesia will continue to actively promote the AOIP and advocate for its expansion as an annual ASEAN platform. Longer-term, the forum’s success hinges on several factors. First, it requires sustained political commitment from ASEAN member states, particularly in overcoming differing national interests and bureaucratic inertia. Second, the expansion of the ACCF and the ASEAN Power Grid faces significant obstacles, including financing challenges, regulatory hurdles, and resistance from vested interests. Finally, the ability of the AIPF to evolve beyond a primarily economic forum into one that can meaningfully address geopolitical issues—such as the South China Sea dispute—will be crucial to its long-term relevance. The next six months will undoubtedly see continued efforts by Indonesia to leverage the AIPF’s momentum, but the true test of Indonesia’s “centrality” will be measured by its ability to sustain momentum through tangible outcomes and demonstrated leadership in the face of a rapidly changing international order. The potential for a significant shift in global power dynamics—and the subsequent disruption of established alliances—demands a careful and deliberate approach to maintaining regional stability.