The persistent image of a child, displaced and clutching a tattered UNHCR blanket, staring out from a makeshift camp in Gao, Mali, encapsulates the stark reality of the Sahel region. According to the International Organization for Migration, over 3.7 million people have been internally displaced within the region since 2012, a testament to the escalating violence and instability. This human cost underscores the profound implications for regional security, international alliances, and the broader struggle against terrorism – a struggle increasingly defined by a complex and intensifying competition between France and China.
The crisis in the Sahel, characterized by the rise of extremist groups like Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) and the coordination of Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), has been a persistent challenge for international actors. Rooted in decades of weak governance, economic inequality, ethnic tensions, and the legacy of post-colonial interventions, the region’s instability has proven remarkably resilient. The 2012 uprising in Mali, initially triggered by resentment over marginalization and the perceived impunity of the central government, rapidly spiraled into a full-blown conflict, ultimately leading to France’s intervention to prevent the collapse of the state – an intervention that continues to generate debate. The subsequent expansion of the conflict into neighboring countries – Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali – further complicated the situation, creating a breeding ground for transnational terrorist networks and fostering a volatile security environment. The current political landscape – particularly the recent coups in Niger and Mali – has dramatically altered the strategic calculus, introducing a powerful new dynamic: the growing assertiveness of China.
France’s Historical Role and the ‘Barkhane’ Operation
For over a decade, France spearheaded Operation Barkhane, a military mission designed to combat jihadist groups and stabilize the region. Supported by a multinational force, France deployed thousands of troops, conducting air strikes, training local security forces, and providing logistical and financial assistance. The mission, launched in 2013, was predicated on the assumption that state building and counter-terrorism required a strong, Western-led military presence. However, Barkhane’s effectiveness was consistently undermined by a combination of factors, including the difficulty of distinguishing between legitimate government forces and jihadist groups, the porous borders that facilitated the movement of fighters, and a persistent lack of genuine engagement with local communities. As Dr. Antoine Simon, a Senior Fellow at the Institut Français des Relations Internationales, noted recently, “Barkhane’s reliance on a purely military approach, without addressing the underlying socio-economic grievances, proved fundamentally unsustainable.” The mission’s eventual withdrawal in 2022, following a deadly attack on a military base, marked a significant shift in the strategic landscape, leaving a security vacuum and fueling concerns about the future of regional stability.
China’s Emerging Influence: Economic Partnerships and Security Assistance
Over the same period, China has been quietly, yet dramatically, expanding its presence in the Sahel. Initially focused on lucrative infrastructure projects – primarily roads, ports, and railways – under the Belt and Road Initiative, China quickly diversified its engagement, beginning to provide substantial security assistance to Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. This assistance, delivered through the China National Guard Force, has included military training, equipment sales, and intelligence sharing. According to a report by the International Crisis Group, “China’s approach is fundamentally different from that of France. Rather than imposing a Western-centric security model, China is prioritizing economic development and building relationships with local actors, regardless of their political affiliations.” The Chinese are also heavily involved in exploiting natural resources, particularly uranium, further solidifying their economic leverage. The recent coup in Niger, swiftly followed by Chinese diplomatic engagement, exemplifies this shift – a clear signal that Beijing is prepared to operate independently of Western norms and alliances.
The Shifting Alliances and Regional Dynamics
The rise of Chinese influence is creating a fundamental challenge to the existing Franco-African partnership. Historically, France has been the dominant Western power in the region, enjoying deep political and economic ties with many African nations. However, Beijing’s willingness to engage with autocratic regimes, coupled with its emphasis on economic pragmatism, is eroding France’s traditional advantage. Furthermore, the shift in Niger has created a power vacuum, prompting Russia to step in with increasing support for the junta, bolstering its military capabilities and further complicating the security landscape. The resultant tension between France and the United States, who have supported Niger’s democratic institutions, highlights the deep divisions within the international community.
Looking ahead, the short-term (next 6 months) will likely see increased competition between China and France for influence in Niger, as well as a heightened risk of instability and further violence as different actors vie for control. Long-term (5-10 years), the trajectory will depend on several factors, including the future of the Nigerien junta, the evolution of China’s engagement, and the capacity of regional partners to build more resilient and inclusive governance structures. A protracted security crisis in the Sahel could have devastating consequences, including a mass migration crisis, the spread of extremism, and a further weakening of international norms. Addressing this challenge requires a nuanced approach, one that recognizes the complex interplay of security, economics, and political dynamics. The key will be to foster genuine partnerships based on mutual respect and shared interests, ensuring a more stable and prosperous future for the people of the Sahel. A critical reflection on the legacies of past interventions, coupled with a commitment to supporting local ownership, is undeniably necessary.