The relentless hum of military aircraft patrolling the skies over Sudan, coupled with recent reports of increased Pakistani naval presence off the coast of Djibouti, presents a profoundly destabilizing development with significant implications for regional security and the future of international alliances. This confluence of events, driven by Pakistan’s ambitious “Envision” strategy and a desire to reassert itself as a key player in the developing world, underscores a critical shift in the dynamics of influence within the Horn of Africa, a region already grappling with immense political and economic pressures. The pursuit of strategic advantage – particularly in the face of a waning United States footprint – is rapidly reshaping alliances and posing a considerable challenge to established norms of engagement.
The current situation stems from a confluence of historical factors and evolving geopolitical realities. Pakistan’s long-standing relationship with Somalia, dating back to the 1970s and 80s, centered primarily on providing logistical and training support to the Somali National Army during the civil war. This relationship, however, cooled significantly after the rise of the Islamic Courts Union and subsequent interventions by the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), which were largely facilitated by Western powers. Now, seeking to regain relevance, Pakistan is undertaking a comprehensive “Envision” strategy – a multi-billion dollar investment program – aimed at strengthening ties with Somalia, Djibouti, and other nations across the Horn. This strategy encompasses naval deployments, military training programs, and economic partnerships, ostensibly focused on maritime security, counter-terrorism, and economic development.
The escalating Pakistani naval presence in Djibouti, a crucial strategic location controlling access to the Red Sea and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait – a vital artery for global trade – has ignited concerns among traditional allies, particularly the United States and France. Djibouti’s increasing openness to collaboration with Pakistan, including defense agreements and infrastructure projects, is viewed as a calculated move to leverage Pakistan’s growing influence and potentially create a counterweight to Western interests in the region. The United Nations estimates that over 70% of global trade passes through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, making Djibouti a strategically significant territory. Data from the World Bank indicates that Djibouti's GDP growth has averaged 8.5% annually over the past decade, largely driven by its port facilities, making it an attractive destination for foreign investment.
Key stakeholders in this evolving landscape include, but are not limited to, the United States, France, Saudi Arabia, Ethiopia, and of course, Pakistan and Somalia. Saudi Arabia’s own strategic interests in the Horn, driven by concerns over Iranian influence, further complicate the dynamics. "The emergence of Pakistan as a major player is disruptive, to say the least," states Dr. Fatima Khan, a senior analyst at the International Security Studies Institute. “It’s not simply about counter-terrorism; it's about a broader assertion of strategic influence at a time when the United States is withdrawing, and other powers are vying for dominance.” The African Union, while supportive of security cooperation, is wary of any single nation dominating the region.
Recent developments in the past six months have dramatically intensified the situation. In July 2025, a Pakistani naval task force conducted a joint exercise with the Somali Navy, focusing on maritime security and anti-piracy operations. Furthermore, reports emerged of Pakistani Special Services Groups training with Somali forces, ostensibly to bolster their capabilities against extremist groups like al-Shabaab. A leaked intelligence report, obtained by Foreign Policy Watchdog, suggests that Pakistan is actively seeking to secure preferential access to Djibouti’s port facilities, effectively gaining a foothold in a critical chokepoint. The ongoing conflict in Sudan also adds a layer of complexity, with reports indicating potential Pakistani involvement in mediating a ceasefire – though the extent of Pakistan’s influence remains unclear. According to figures from the UN Integrated Peacekeeping Mission in Darfur (UNIFAM), the number of Pakistani military personnel deployed to the region has increased by over 30% in the last six months.
Looking ahead, the short-term (next 6 months) is likely to see continued intensification of Pakistan’s efforts in the Horn, including increased military training, deepening economic ties, and a greater push to establish a permanent naval base in Djibouti. The risk of escalating tensions with the United States and France, who have long considered this region their strategic domain, is elevated. Longer-term (5-10 years), the strategic implications are even more profound. Pakistan’s success in consolidating its influence could lead to a multi-polar security architecture in the Horn, challenging the existing Western-led order. Alternatively, a concerted response from the United States and its allies – potentially involving increased diplomatic pressure, sanctions, or even military intervention – could curtail Pakistan's ambitions. “The Horn of Africa is becoming a proving ground for emerging powers,” warns Dr. Jean-Luc Dubois, a specialist in African geopolitics at Sciences Po. “Pakistan's strategy presents a powerful counter-narrative to the Western model of engagement, but it also carries significant risks.” The situation is further complicated by the ongoing instability in Sudan, which could easily spill over into neighboring countries.
The shifting sands of influence in the Horn of Africa represent a watershed moment in global geopolitics. The pursuit of strategic advantage – a constant throughout history – is driving a fundamental reordering of alliances and posing significant challenges to established norms of engagement. The question remains: can Pakistan successfully navigate the complex web of regional interests and power dynamics, or will its ambitions lead to further instability and conflict? The answers will have far-reaching consequences, not just for the Horn of Africa, but for the future of international security. It’s imperative that policymakers, journalists, and informed citizens engage with this evolving situation, understanding the risks and opportunities inherent in this contest for influence.