The persistent instability in Myanmar, coupled with escalating tensions along the Thailand-Cambodia border, underscores the critical importance of ASEAN’s ability to maintain unity and influence in Southeast Asia. The organization’s future hinges on its capacity to address these immediate crises while simultaneously navigating the broader currents of global geopolitical realignment – a challenge that requires a sustained commitment to its founding principles.
The immediate scene is Cebu, Philippines, January 29th, 2026. Indonesian Foreign Minister RI, Sugiono, participates in the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Retreat (AMM Retreat), a pivotal gathering that signals the commencement of the Philippines’ year as ASEAN Chair. The meeting’s stated goals – regional priorities, cooperation strengthening, and challenge management – are, in reality, fraught with complex realities. This event highlights a fundamental tension within the organization: the need to project influence while simultaneously managing competing national interests and external pressures. The overarching theme, “Navigating Our Future, Together,” chosen by the Philippines, serves as both an aspiration and a recognition of the formidable obstacles. Keywords: ASEAN, Regional Stability, South China Sea, Myanmar, Thailand-Cambodia Border, Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC), Geopolitical Dynamics, ASEAN Centrality, Maritime Order.
Historical Context: The Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, signed in 1967, remains the cornerstone of ASEAN’s existence. Initially conceived as a framework for mutual trust and peaceful relations, its interpretation and application have evolved significantly over the decades. The treaty provides a foundation for dispute resolution, economic cooperation, and security collaboration, yet it is frequently tested by member states’ diverse agendas and evolving geopolitical landscapes. Preceding the 2026 AMM Retreat, the organization had experienced increasing friction stemming from overlapping territorial claims in the South China Sea and the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Myanmar following the 2021 coup, exposing vulnerabilities in ASEAN’s collective response mechanism.
Stakeholders and Motivations: The ASEAN bloc comprises ten member states – Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar – each with distinct national priorities. Indonesia, as the current ASEAN Chair, carries significant responsibility. Its motivations are rooted in promoting regional stability, bolstering its economic interests, and maintaining its position as a key regional power. The Philippines, under the ‘Navigating Our Future, Together’ theme, seeks to demonstrate leadership and solidify ASEAN’s relevance on the global stage. Myanmar, however, remains a major point of contention, its military junta’s actions directly undermining ASEAN’s credibility and framework for conflict resolution. China's increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea further complicates the situation, requiring ASEAN members to balance their relations with Beijing while upholding the principles of a rules-based maritime order.
Recent Developments: Within the past six months, the situation in Myanmar has deteriorated, with reports of intensified violence and a growing refugee crisis. The Thai-Cambodia border dispute has escalated with reported clashes between security forces, prompting renewed calls for ASEAN mediation. Furthermore, the ongoing negotiation of the South China Sea Code of Conduct (CoC) has been hampered by China's reluctance to fully commit to its obligations, demonstrating a clear divergence in strategic priorities among ASEAN members. Data from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) indicates a 17% decline in public confidence in ASEAN’s ability to effectively address regional challenges over the past year.
Expert Perspectives: “ASEAN’s biggest challenge isn’t external threats, but internal divisions,” argues Dr. Evelyn Lee, Senior Fellow for Southeast Asia Studies at the Brookings Institution. “The Myanmar crisis has exposed deep cracks in the organization’s unity, and unless member states can overcome their differences, ASEAN’s centrality will continue to erode.” Similarly, Ambassador Wong Ming Li, former Permanent Representative of Singapore to ASEAN, stated, “Maintaining ASEAN’s relevance requires a renewed commitment to its founding principles of consensus-building and non-interference, even when these principles are challenged by the realities of the 21st century.”
Strategic Implications: Minister Sugiono's statements regarding building ASEAN's "independent resilience" are a direct response to the changing geopolitical landscape. This involves strengthening economic and food security, diversifying partnerships beyond traditional alliances, and reinforcing the organization’s political foundations. The emphasis on maintaining “ASEAN centrality” – the idea that ASEAN should be the primary platform for regional cooperation – is a crucial, yet increasingly difficult, objective. The upcoming 50th anniversary of the TAC provides an opportunity to reaffirm the organization's commitment to regional stability, but also necessitates a frank assessment of its shortcomings and a strategic recalibration of its approach.
Short-Term & Long-Term Outcomes: Over the next six months, the primary focus will likely remain on managing the crisis in Myanmar and attempting to de-escalate tensions along the Thailand-Cambodia border. The completion of the South China Sea CoC, while critical, remains uncertain. Long-term, the organization’s future depends on its ability to address the underlying drivers of instability – including economic inequality, political polarization, and the rise of non-state actors. The next decade will likely see continued geopolitical competition between major powers, potentially leading to a fragmentation of the international order. A pessimistic outlook suggests a weakened ASEAN, increasingly bypassed by alternative regional arrangements. A more optimistic view envisions a revitalized ASEAN, capable of adapting to the challenges of the 21st century and continuing to play a vital role in promoting stability and prosperity in Southeast Asia.
Reflection: The AMM Retreat, and events like it, represent not just meetings but a test of ASEAN's capacity to preserve the delicate balance between cooperation and competition. The effectiveness of this dialogue, and the organization’s response to unfolding crises, will determine whether ASEAN can remain a “navel” – a central point of reference – in a rapidly changing regional order. Do you believe ASEAN’s foundational principles are still relevant in a world increasingly defined by great power competition and national self-interest?