Indonesia’s burgeoning engagement with Sudan’s fisheries sector presents a complex, yet potentially stabilizing, element within the volatile Horn of Africa, demanding careful scrutiny by policymakers and analysts. The initiative, spearheaded by private sector collaboration facilitated by the Indonesian Embassy, reflects a deliberate strategy aimed at bolstering regional trade and security, while simultaneously navigating the significant geopolitical risks inherent in Sudan’s ongoing conflict and the broader instability of the Red Sea. The scale of the operation, coupled with the strategic importance of Port Sudan as a critical maritime transit point, underscores the potential for both opportunity and vulnerability.
The current initiative originates from a sustained period of strategic assessment within Jakarta, driven largely by the need to diversify Indonesia's economic partnerships beyond its traditional Southeast Asian markets. Historically, Indonesia has sought avenues to secure access to vital resources and bolster its maritime influence. Sudan, possessing significant untapped fisheries resources – estimated by the FAO to hold potential yields exceeding 1.4 million metric tons annually – presented a compelling, albeit challenging, target. However, the unfolding crisis in Sudan, exacerbated by the protracted civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, introduces unprecedented layers of complexity. The ongoing conflict severely disrupts trade routes, undermines infrastructure, and dramatically increases security risks along the Red Sea. This necessitates a nuanced understanding of the factors at play.
Historically, Indonesia’s relations with Sudan have been largely characterized by limited direct engagement, primarily focused on technical assistance and cultural exchange. Diplomatic ties solidified following Sudan’s independence in 1956, but sustained economic partnerships remained elusive. The 1990s witnessed increased trade volumes, largely driven by Sudan’s dependence on Indonesian agricultural imports. More recently, there has been a growing interest within Indonesian businesses to explore investment opportunities in Sudan’s infrastructure and resource sectors, though political uncertainty consistently hampered progress. “The current initiative represents a shift towards a more focused, commercially-driven approach, reflecting Indonesia’s desire to actively shape regional dynamics rather than simply observe from a distance,” stated Dr. Amira Hassan, Senior Analyst at the Cairo Center for Strategic Studies, during a recent interview.
Key Stakeholders and Motivations:
Several actors are implicated in this unfolding scenario. The Sudanese government, fragmented and struggling to maintain control, perceives the initiative as a vital source of foreign investment and a means to alleviate economic hardship. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF), controlling significant portions of territory and vital infrastructure, also see potential benefit, though their commitment to stable trade and investment remains questionable. Indonesia’s motivations are multi-faceted: securing access to fisheries, strengthening its maritime presence in the Red Sea, and fostering trade relations. The involvement of Sudanese businessmen, Mr. Nasereldin Ali ElAmin and Mr. Emad Eldin Basher, reflects a deliberate strategy to leverage local expertise and build a robust private sector partnership. “The commercial imperative is undoubtedly strong, but Indonesia is also acutely aware of the security implications,” commented Professor David Miller, a specialist in African security at King’s College London. “The Red Sea is a critical choke point for global trade, and instability there has ramifications far beyond Sudan.”
Recent Developments (Past Six Months):
Over the past six months, the initiative has seen initial, albeit cautious, progress. Permits have been secured for the initial phase of development, focusing on the construction of a fish processing facility near Port Sudan. However, significant challenges remain. The RSF control of key logistical routes and the ongoing insecurity have repeatedly disrupted operations. Supply chain issues, equipment deliveries, and the safety of personnel have become recurring obstacles. Furthermore, the volatility of the Sudanese currency and the lack of a stable legal and regulatory framework present substantial risks for investors. The recent escalation in fighting around Port Sudan in October 2025 further compounded these difficulties, forcing temporary shutdowns and delaying project timelines.
Short-Term & Long-Term Impact:
Within the next six months, the project’s success hinges on securing a more stable operating environment. Continued engagement with regional powers, particularly Egypt and Saudi Arabia, who possess significant influence in Sudan, will be crucial. Improved security conditions and the establishment of a functional governance structure are paramount. Failure to achieve these could lead to the project’s collapse, further exacerbating Sudan’s economic woes. Longer term (5-10 years), the initiative could establish a sustainable model for regional trade and investment, contributing to Sudan’s economic recovery – provided the broader conflict is resolved. However, the potential for the Port Sudan region to become a focal point for regional competition and instability remains substantial. Should the conflict continue, Indonesia’s presence could be increasingly viewed as a source of contention, potentially drawing other actors into the region.
Conclusion:
Indonesia’s engagement with Sudan’s fisheries sector is a strategically valuable, yet inherently risky, undertaking. It represents a calculated attempt to exert influence in a region of growing geopolitical importance. The success of this venture will ultimately be determined by the ability of all stakeholders – including the Indonesian government, the Sudanese factions, and regional powers – to manage the considerable challenges and mitigate the considerable risks. The situation demands a sustained commitment to diplomacy, security, and pragmatic collaboration. The question now is not simply whether Indonesia can establish a viable commercial operation in Sudan, but whether this engagement can contribute to a longer-term process of stability and prosperity – a prospect that, at present, appears profoundly uncertain.