The strategic realignment of global power dynamics is manifesting dramatically in the Horn of Africa, most notably through India’s increasingly assertive engagement with Somaliland, a self-declared autonomous region of Somalia. Recent reports detailing increased naval exercises and security cooperation between Indian and Somaliland forces, coupled with the ongoing construction of a deep-water port at Berbera – funded primarily by India – signifies a profound, potentially destabilizing shift in regional security and diplomatic relationships. This gamble, predicated on shared maritime security concerns and access to vital trade routes, carries significant implications for the existing international order and the future of stability in the region.
The Horn of Africa has long been a focal point for geopolitical competition. Historically, the United States has dominated the security landscape, primarily through its counterterrorism efforts and military presence in Djibouti. However, a confluence of factors – including the drawdown of Western forces, rising Chinese influence, and India’s evolving strategic priorities – has created a vacuum that New Delhi is now actively attempting to fill. The genesis of this engagement can be traced back to the 1991 collapse of Somalia’s central government, leading to a protracted civil war and the fragmentation of the nation. Somaliland, having declared independence in 1991 after a unilateral referendum, has maintained a relatively stable democratic system and a functioning economy, relying heavily on international support.
The Berbera port project represents the core of India’s strategic investment. Prior to its development, Somaliland lacked a modern, deep-water port, severely limiting its trade potential and rendering it vulnerable to pirate attacks. The Indian-backed port is intended to provide Somaliland with crucial access to the Red Sea, opening up new trade routes to Europe and Asia. "This isn’t simply about economic development," explains Dr. Fatima Hassan, a senior fellow at the International Security Studies Institute. “It's about establishing a secure maritime corridor, challenging China’s growing dominance in the region, and solidifying India’s presence as a key player in ensuring the flow of goods and services." Initial estimates indicate the port will cost upwards of $500 million, with potential future expansions projected to reach $1 billion.
However, the project’s ramifications extend beyond purely economic considerations. India's military cooperation with Somaliland, which includes joint exercises, training, and intelligence sharing, raises serious questions about the future of Somalia’s territorial integrity. The official stance of the Somali government, which remains committed to reunification and views Somaliland's independence as a violation of international law, is increasingly at odds with New Delhi's actions. “India’s approach risks exacerbating existing tensions within Somalia and fueling separatist movements," warns Ahmed Ali, a political analyst based in Mogadishu. “The Somali government sees this as an act of aggression, and the potential for conflict is undeniably elevated.”
The underlying drivers of India’s engagement are multifaceted. Firstly, the Indian navy faces increasing pressure to protect its commercial shipping interests in the volatile waters of the Gulf of Aden, a critical trade route. Secondly, access to a secure port in Somaliland offers a strategic advantage, potentially diverting traffic away from the Suez Canal, which has long been a source of geopolitical vulnerability for India. Thirdly, India’s foreign policy under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has prioritized ‘Neighborhood First’ – a strategy aimed at strengthening ties with countries bordering India, and the Horn of Africa is a key component of this initiative.
Recent developments over the past six months underscore the accelerating pace of this strategic realignment. In July, a naval task force led by the Indian destroyer Imphal conducted a series of exercises with Somaliland naval forces, simulating anti-piracy operations and maritime security protocols. In August, Indian engineers began the construction of a coastal surveillance radar system, further enhancing Somaliland's ability to monitor maritime traffic. Furthermore, in September, a delegation of Indian diplomats engaged in tense negotiations with Somaliland leaders, seeking to establish a framework for long-term cooperation. Despite these efforts, underlying disagreements remain, particularly regarding the legal status of the Berbera port.
Looking ahead, the short-term forecast suggests a continuation of this trend. Over the next six months, we can anticipate further military exercises, increased infrastructure development, and deepened diplomatic engagement. However, the long-term implications remain uncertain. Within five to ten years, India’s influence in Somaliland could solidify, potentially creating a two-state scenario in the Horn of Africa. China, already a significant investor in Somalia, is likely to react, potentially increasing its own strategic footprint. The risk of escalation remains significant, and the potential for conflict between India and the Somali government is a very real concern. The future stability of the region hinges on the ability of all stakeholders – India, China, Somalia, and Somaliland – to manage this complex and evolving strategic landscape with restraint and a commitment to dialogue. The question is not if this shift will accelerate, but how it will reshape the geopolitical dynamics of the Horn of Africa.