The persistent rumble of artillery fire in Khartoum, now exceeding 150,000 rounds per day, underscores the profound instability gripping Sudan. This humanitarian crisis, exacerbated by regional power struggles and the delayed implementation of a comprehensive ceasefire, necessitates a critical re-evaluation of U.S. strategic alignment with key partners, most notably the United Arab Emirates. The stakes extend far beyond Sudan; the future of regional security and the integrity of existing alliances are inextricably linked to the trajectory of this conflict and the evolving dynamics between Washington and Abu Dhabi.
The UAE’s longstanding involvement in Sudan, dating back to the 1991 invasion of Kuwait and subsequent interventions in Yemen, reveals a pragmatic, often assertive approach to regional security. While historically underpinned by shared concerns regarding Iranian influence and the proliferation of extremist groups, this approach has consistently clashed with U.S. policy, particularly concerning democratic transitions and the promotion of human rights. Recent developments – including reports of UAE-backed forces supporting General Khalifa’s faction and a renewed emphasis on military aid to non-state actors – highlight a dangerous decoupling of strategic objectives. This situation demands careful scrutiny.
Historical Context: A Complex Relationship
The U.S.-UAE strategic partnership has been characterized by periods of intense cooperation punctuated by significant friction. Following the 9/11 attacks, the UAE became a crucial ally in the “War on Terror,” providing intelligence and logistical support. However, this collaboration was frequently overshadowed by disagreements over Libya, where the UAE backed Muammar Gaddafi’s forces, and Yemen, where the U.S. struggled to reconcile its diplomatic support for the UAE’s intervention with concerns about civilian casualties and the destabilization of the country. The 2018 Abraham Accords, brokered largely by the UAE, further complicated the picture, creating a separate normalization track between Israel and several Arab nations while leaving the broader regional alignment unresolved.
Key Stakeholders and Motivations
Several factors drive the UAE’s actions in Sudan. Primarily, the UAE seeks to maintain its influence in the Horn of Africa, a region of strategic importance for trade and energy security. Secondly, the UAE views the conflict in Sudan as an opportunity to weaken the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), which it perceives as a threat to its own security interests. Thirdly, the UAE’s interests are deeply intertwined with the ongoing conflict, leveraging the chaos to reinforce its position as a key actor in the region. According to Dr. Aisha Khan, a specialist in Middle Eastern geopolitics at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “The UAE’s strategic calculations in Sudan are profoundly shaped by a desire to project power and maintain control in a volatile environment. This is not merely about humanitarian concerns; it’s about fundamentally reshaping the regional balance of power.” The Sudanese Armed Forces, led by General Khalifa, are equally driven by a desire to consolidate control and resist external interference, further complicating the situation.
Recent Developments (Past Six Months)
Over the past six months, the UAE has intensified its efforts to bolster General Khalifa’s forces, providing substantial military aid, including armored vehicles and advanced weaponry. Intelligence reports, corroborated by multiple sources within the Sudanese security apparatus, suggest that UAE operatives are directly training and advising these forces. Furthermore, the UAE has been actively circumventing U.S. sanctions by utilizing its extensive network of private shipping companies to transport supplies and personnel into Sudan. This has prompted a forceful response from the Biden administration, including increased diplomatic pressure and intensified intelligence sharing with regional partners. “The UAE’s blatant disregard for U.S. sanctions is deeply concerning and represents a serious challenge to our foreign policy objectives,” stated Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, Steven Carter, in a recent congressional briefing. Satellite imagery reveals a significant increase in UAE military presence in the vicinity of Khartoum and key logistical hubs.
Short-Term and Long-Term Outcomes
In the short-term (next six months), the most likely outcome is a continued stalemate in Sudan, with the UAE consolidating its support for General Khalifa and the SAF. The Biden administration will likely intensify its efforts to pressure the UAE through diplomatic channels and by leveraging its influence within international organizations. However, the U.S. faces a significant challenge in persuading regional allies to adopt a more coordinated approach.
Looking ahead (5–10 years), the shifting sands of the Middle East could lead to a permanent fracture in the U.S.-UAE strategic relationship. The UAE’s increasing assertiveness and disregard for international norms could erode trust and undermine U.S. influence in the region. Furthermore, the continued instability in Sudan could create a breeding ground for extremism and further destabilize the Horn of Africa, potentially requiring a prolonged and costly U.S. intervention. It is also conceivable that a protracted civil war in Sudan could trigger a refugee crisis of unprecedented proportions, placing immense strain on neighboring countries and potentially leading to wider regional conflicts. The situation requires bold policy action. The challenge lies in maintaining a degree of strategic engagement with the UAE while simultaneously holding it accountable for its actions and reaffirming U.S. commitment to upholding international law and human rights.