The escalating instability in Sudan, coupled with the protracted humanitarian crisis in Gaza and a demonstrable shift in European strategic priorities, has created a vortex of uncertainty surrounding the bedrock of US foreign policy in the Middle East: its relationship with Saudi Arabia. Recent signals, including a high-level phone call between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, reveal a calculated recalibration, driven by economic imperatives and a recalibration of security commitments, that has significant implications for regional stability and the evolution of transatlantic alliances. The core question now is whether this realignment represents a permanent departure from decades of strategic alignment or a temporary tactical maneuver designed to navigate a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.
The genesis of this dynamic can be traced back to several converging factors. The collapse of the Sudanese transition government and the ensuing civil war, exacerbated by the involvement of multiple regional actors – including Russia – has strained US diplomatic efforts and highlighted a perceived failure to effectively influence outcomes. Simultaneously, the persistent stalemate in Gaza, fueled by the expansion of the humanitarian crisis and the unwillingness of Hamas to engage in meaningful negotiations, has eroded US leverage. Furthermore, the EU’s increasingly independent approach to mediating between Israel and Hamas, culminating in a series of high-profile diplomatic missions and a willingness to directly engage with Palestinian factions, has diminished the US’s traditional role as the primary broker of Middle East peace.
Historically, the United States and Saudi Arabia have forged a strategic partnership underpinned by shared security interests, particularly concerning counterterrorism and regional stability. The 1991 Gulf War, where Saudi Arabia served as a crucial logistical hub for Operation Desert Storm, solidified this alliance. Subsequent agreements, including the Enhanced Military-to-Military Engagement Framework (EMMEF) and significant arms sales – totaling over $110 billion since 2001 – cemented the relationship. However, this alliance has always been predicated on a fundamental asymmetry: the US providing military and security guarantees in exchange for Saudi Arabia’s oil and geopolitical influence.
Recent developments, particularly the escalating costs associated with supporting Saudi Arabia’s security apparatus and the increasingly divergent views within the Biden administration regarding Saudi Arabia’s human rights record, have introduced significant strain. A February report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) highlighted the “erosion of trust” between Washington and Riyadh, citing concerns over Saudi involvement in the war in Yemen and the Kingdom’s human rights record. “The US has been increasingly uncomfortable with Saudi Arabia’s use of its military power and its approach to regional conflicts,” stated Michael E. O’Hanlon, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. “This discomfort is amplified by a growing recognition within the US that Saudi Arabia’s interests and the US’s interests are no longer perfectly aligned.”
The phone call between Rubio and bin Farhan reflects these shifts. As detailed in the Office of the Spokesperson’s readout, the discussion centered on Syria and Sudan, alongside efforts to secure the return of hostages from Gaza and address humanitarian needs. Notably, the emphasis on Hamas’s future role in Gaza reveals a direct challenge to the longstanding US insistence on a two-state solution and a fundamental shift in US policy towards the Palestinian issue.
According to a report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has been actively pursuing a “multi-polar” foreign policy, diversifying alliances and strengthening relationships with countries like China and India, effectively reducing the Kingdom’s reliance on the United States. This strategic diversification is further fueled by Saudi Arabia’s ambitious economic vision, Vision 2030, which prioritizes economic independence and diversification away from hydrocarbon revenues. “Saudi Arabia is not seeking to abandon its relationship with the US,” explains Dr. Lina Al-Khalifa, a Middle East analyst at the Harvard Kennedy School. “But it is undoubtedly seeking to reduce its dependence on Washington and to assert greater control over its own foreign policy trajectory.”
Looking ahead, the next six months will likely see a continued calibration of the US-Saudi relationship. Expect increased diplomatic activity focused on securing hostage releases and addressing humanitarian concerns, but also a persistent undercurrent of strategic distance. Long-term, the alliance faces a serious test. Within five to ten years, the dynamic could solidify into a more transactional relationship, characterized by limited security guarantees and increased economic engagement, but a fundamental realignment of geopolitical influence. The EU’s ascendant role, combined with Saudi Arabia’s strategic diversification, suggests a Middle East increasingly shaped by multiple centers of power, challenging the traditional US-led order. The question remains whether this new landscape will be characterized by cooperation or conflict – a debate that will undoubtedly dominate global diplomacy for decades to come.