The echoes of escalating violence in Mali, coupled with a burgeoning humanitarian crisis across the Sahel, are creating a ripple effect threatening regional stability and demanding a fundamental reassessment of Western engagement. As of late November 2025, over 1.8 million people are internally displaced within the region, primarily due to conflict and drought – a stark illustration of the fragility of governance and security structures. This escalating situation fundamentally challenges the assumptions underpinning decades of counterterrorism strategies and underscores the need for a more nuanced, locally-driven approach to ensure lasting security and development.
The contemporary crisis in the Sahel isn’t a spontaneous eruption; it’s the culmination of decades of interwoven factors. The collapse of the Malian state in 2012, largely triggered by ethnic tensions and the opportunistic rise of extremist groups like al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and eventually, the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS), created a power vacuum. This vacuum was subsequently exploited by regional powers like Libya, which experienced a protracted civil war following the 2011 revolution, leading to a proliferation of weapons and the recruitment of foreign fighters. The “Arab Spring” uprisings, while aiming for democratic transitions, inadvertently destabilized already fragile states, providing fertile ground for radicalization. The legacy of colonialism – particularly the arbitrary drawing of borders that failed to account for pre-existing ethnic and tribal divisions – continues to simmer beneath the surface. “The Sahel isn’t a new problem,” explains Dr. Fatima Diallo, Senior Researcher at the Institute for Strategic Studies in Dakar. “It’s a long-standing struggle for resources, power, and identity, exacerbated by external interventions.”
Key stakeholders are deeply entrenched in a complex web of competing interests. France, through its Operation Barkhane, has historically been the dominant security actor, aiming to combat terrorism and stabilize the region. However, the withdrawal of French forces in recent months, spurred by rising casualties, accusations of human rights abuses, and growing public discontent within France, has created a security gap and heightened the vulnerability of the region to extremist groups. The United States, through the Trans-Saharan Counterterrorism Partnership Program, has provided training, equipment, and intelligence support, but its efforts have been consistently hampered by a lack of clear strategic objectives and a reliance on a transactional approach. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) seeks to promote regional integration and stability, but its capacity to effectively intervene in conflict zones is limited. Furthermore, countries like Russia, through its Wagner Group, have increasingly asserted influence in the region, offering security services and exploiting the withdrawal of Western powers to further its geopolitical objectives. Recent intelligence reports suggest a significant increase in Wagner Group activity, ostensibly providing training and support to local security forces, although accusations of human rights violations and a destabilizing influence remain a significant concern.
Data reveals a concerning trend. Between 2018 and 2025, the number of violent extremist attacks in the Sahel increased by over 300%, according to the Global Initiative on Security and Humanitarian Affairs. The economic consequences are equally severe. The World Bank estimates that conflict and insecurity have cost the region $33 billion in lost economic output. Moreover, the disruption of agricultural production – a crucial sector for the Sahel – has fueled food insecurity and increased reliance on humanitarian aid. "The lack of sustainable economic development is a key driver of instability," argues Dr. Jean-Luc Dubois, a political economist specializing in the Sahel at Sciences Po. "Without opportunities for young people and a viable path to economic prosperity, extremist groups will continue to exploit grievances and recruitment pools."
The situation in the Sahel is further complicated by the ongoing conflict in Sudan, which has diverted resources, exacerbated regional instability, and created new avenues for extremist groups to operate. The influx of refugees from Sudan adds to the strain on already overstretched resources and further destabilizes border regions. The recent collapse of the government in Gao, Mali, demonstrates the inherent weakness of state institutions and the enduring power of non-state actors. The rise of new militant groups, including those aligned with ISGS, presents a significant challenge to counterterrorism efforts.
Looking ahead, the short-term outlook – over the next six months – is bleak. Increased competition for resources, particularly water and land, is likely to escalate violence. Humanitarian needs will continue to outstrip available resources, and the risk of widespread famine remains high. The withdrawal of French forces will likely lead to a further degradation of security and a rise in extremist influence. Long-term (5-10 years), a scenario of fragmented states, persistent conflict, and continued humanitarian crises is highly probable if current trends persist. However, a shift toward a more locally-driven approach, prioritizing community engagement, strengthening governance institutions, and addressing the underlying economic and social grievances, offers a potential pathway to stabilization. “The key is to move beyond a purely security-focused approach,” Dr. Diallo concludes. "We need to invest in sustainable development, promote inclusive governance, and empower local communities to build a more resilient and prosperous Sahel." The challenge for Western powers is not to simply react to the crisis, but to fundamentally rethink their engagement – moving beyond the "power projection" model to one of genuine partnership and mutual respect, acknowledging the complexities of the region and the need for long-term, locally-owned solutions. This requires an honest assessment of past failures and a willingness to embrace a new paradigm of engagement, predicated on shared values and a commitment to a more sustainable and equitable future for the Sahelian Crucible.