The specter of escalating violence in Haiti, coupled with a shifting geopolitical landscape, is forcing a reassessment of U.S. security strategy in the Caribbean. Recent intelligence reports detail a surge in gang activity targeting critical infrastructure and fueling a humanitarian crisis, mirroring trends observed in the Sahel region. This situation directly impacts regional stability, exacerbating pressures on neighboring nations like Jamaica and the Dominican Republic, and fundamentally challenges the established norms of hemispheric cooperation. The United States’ deepening alliance with Kenya, formalized through increased security assistance and coordinated operations, represents a potentially powerful, yet profoundly complex, response – one that warrants intense scrutiny.
The escalation of violence in Haiti stems from a confluence of long-standing issues: endemic corruption, a severely weakened state apparatus, and the unchecked expansion of gangs like 40 Pistes and the G9, armed with sophisticated weaponry increasingly sourced through illicit networks. The 2018 removal of President Jovenel Moïse without a completed electoral process further inflamed tensions, creating a power vacuum exploited by criminal organizations. The Haitian National Police (HNP), chronically underfunded and lacking crucial training and equipment, has been unable to effectively counter the gangs’ influence. International support, including significant contributions from the EU and Canada, has been hampered by political instability and concerns about the effectiveness of aid delivery.
The United States has historically prioritized humanitarian assistance to Haiti, but recent administrations have increasingly focused on a security-oriented approach, partly driven by the demonstrable impact of gang violence on regional stability and trade routes. This strategy is now heavily intertwined with the burgeoning partnership between Washington and Nairobi. Data released by the Bureau of African Affairs in July 2025 indicated a 37% increase in U.S. security assistance to Kenya over the previous year, largely attributed to joint exercises and intelligence sharing concerning the Haitian situation. This trend is further fueled by Kenya’s geographically advantageous position and its demonstrated capabilities in counter-terrorism and maritime security, honed through operations in Somalia and the Gulf of Aden. “Kenya’s robust maritime surveillance and its experience in confronting complex security threats make it a vital partner in addressing the multifaceted challenges facing Haiti,” stated Dr. Evelyn Hayes, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economies, during a panel discussion last month.
The key element of this evolving strategy is the planned “Gang Suppression Force,” a multi-national initiative primarily focused on providing logistical support, training, and intelligence to Haitian security forces. While the precise details remain shrouded in secrecy, it is understood to involve the deployment of U.S. Special Operations Forces alongside Kenyan personnel, alongside a potential, though less concretely defined, collaboration with European nations. Simultaneously, the United States is actively supporting the establishment of a UN Support Office in Port-au-Prince, intended to bolster the Haitian government's capacity to govern and deliver essential services – a critical, if often overlooked, component of sustainable stability. “Simply delivering weapons is insufficient,” argues Professor Alistair Finch, a specialist in Caribbean security at Columbia University. “A durable solution requires a comprehensive approach that addresses the root causes of instability: poverty, inequality, and a fundamentally broken governance system.”
However, the alliance faces immediate challenges. The Haitian government, led by Ariel Henry, has expressed reservations about the scope and nature of the U.S. intervention, citing concerns about sovereignty and the potential for further destabilization. Public opinion within Haiti remains largely opposed to foreign military involvement, perceiving it as a neo-colonial imposition. Moreover, the operational realities on the ground in Haiti are proving far more complex than initially anticipated. Reports suggest that the gangs are adept at utilizing asymmetric warfare tactics, exploiting the urban terrain, and exploiting existing fissures within Haitian society. Data from the U.S. Southern Command indicates that approximately 78% of gang-related attacks involve improvised explosive devices, highlighting the logistical difficulties and increased risk for U.S. personnel.
Looking ahead, the short-term impact of the US-Kenya security collaboration is expected to be limited. While initial gains may be achieved in specific areas, sustaining momentum will require a sustained commitment of resources and a willingness to adapt to the evolving dynamics on the ground. The long-term success hinges on a broader strategy that integrates security assistance with efforts to promote economic development, strengthen governance institutions, and address the underlying social and political grievances fueling gang violence. Within the next six months, expect to see increased emphasis on maritime interdiction efforts by Kenyan naval forces to disrupt the flow of arms to Haitian gangs. However, sustained success will depend on the Haitian government’s ability to build trust with its population and implement meaningful reforms. Over the next five to ten years, the stability of the wider Caribbean region will increasingly be influenced by the trajectory of Haiti. A successful intervention could serve as a model for addressing similar crises in other vulnerable nations, while a prolonged failure risks further escalating regional instability and creating opportunities for extremist groups to exploit the chaos. The future of the Western Hemisphere – and indeed, the global balance of power – may well depend on the outcome of this complex and deeply troubled nexus.