The rhythmic clang of the Hanoi shipyard, a sound once synonymous with Soviet-era naval construction, now echoes with the construction of advanced patrol boats for the Vietnamese People’s Army – Navy. This seemingly incremental shift represents a fundamental realignment within the Indo-Pacific security architecture, driven by a decade of sustained, albeit cautiously optimistic, diplomatic engagement between the United States and Vietnam. Understanding the nuances of this evolving relationship – formalized through the Fourteenth U.S.-Vietnam Political, Security and Defense Dialogue – is crucial for assessing the stability of the region and the future of alliances in a world increasingly characterized by great-power competition. The burgeoning partnership poses both opportunities and challenges, particularly concerning China's growing influence and the complex calculus of regional security.
The accelerating pace of U.S.-Vietnam military cooperation isn't a sudden event, but rather the culmination of decades of strategic recalibration. Following the normalization of relations in 1995, the United States initially focused on economic engagement, gradually opening its market to Vietnamese goods. However, anxieties regarding China’s assertive behavior in the South China Sea, coupled with Vietnam’s own territorial disputes, catalyzed a shift towards security cooperation. The 2016 Strategic Partnership Dialogue laid the groundwork, followed by intensified military-to-military exchanges and collaborative exercises. The 2024 Vietnam-U.S. Defense Policy Dialogue in Hanoi, as highlighted in a recent State Department press release, further solidified this trajectory. The Fourteenth Dialogue, held in December 2025, represents a deepened commitment to exploring avenues for enhanced security cooperation, focusing primarily on maritime security and regional stability.
“The United States recognizes Vietnam’s legitimate security concerns and seeks to build a relationship based on mutual respect and shared interests,” stated Fleet White, Senior Bureau Official for Political-Military Affairs, during the initial meeting. “Our goal is to contribute to a stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific region, and we believe that working with partners like Vietnam is essential to achieving this objective.” This sentiment reflects a broader strategic objective – bolstering a network of like-minded nations capable of effectively countering potential threats, particularly those posed by Beijing. Data from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) shows a 37% increase in military-to-military engagements between the U.S. and Vietnam over the past five years, encompassing joint naval exercises, maritime domain awareness training, and cybersecurity cooperation. This intensification is further underscored by the increased procurement of U.S. military equipment by Vietnam, including advanced radar systems and communications technology, designed to bolster Vietnam’s capacity to monitor and respond to threats in the South China Sea.
The motivations behind this shift are multi-layered. For Vietnam, the primary driver is self-preservation. Hanoi’s longstanding dispute with China over the Paracel and Spratly Islands has led to continuous military modernization and a desire to enhance its ability to defend its maritime interests. The U.S. offers Vietnam a credible deterrent against Chinese coercion, providing access to advanced technology and training—resources Vietnam desperately needs to compete with Beijing’s growing naval power. “Vietnam’s strategic calculations are fundamentally shaped by its geographic location and the realities of its territorial disputes,” explains Dr. Le Thanh, a professor of Southeast Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore. “The U.S. partnership provides a crucial balancing mechanism, allowing Vietnam to pursue its national interests without fearing a disproportionate response from China.” Furthermore, Vietnam’s increasingly sophisticated economy demands protection of vital trade routes, making robust maritime security a paramount concern.
However, the U.S.-Vietnam partnership remains delicately balanced. The U.S. acknowledges China’s “historical rights” in the South China Sea, a position that Beijing leverages to justify its expansive claims and military activities. A key area of contention revolves around the Thucydides Trap – the inherent risk that the rise of a dominant power (China) will inevitably lead to conflict with a more established one (the U.S. and its allies). Moreover, the alliance faces scrutiny within Southeast Asia, where some nations remain wary of deepening ties with a country perceived as directly challenging China. Recent data from Pew Research Center indicates that public opinion in countries like Malaysia and Indonesia regarding the U.S. presence in the Indo-Pacific is mixed, with concerns about potential escalation and the impact on regional stability.
Looking ahead, over the next six months, we can anticipate continued intensification of the security dialogue, with a focus on practical exercises and capacity-building initiatives. There will likely be further collaboration on maritime domain awareness, including shared intelligence gathering and the deployment of U.S. naval assets to patrol areas of concern. The U.S. will undoubtedly continue to pressure China to adhere to international law and respect freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. Over the longer term, (5-10 years), the U.S.-Vietnam relationship could become a cornerstone of a broader Indo-Pacific security architecture, potentially leading to the formation of a coalition of nations committed to upholding the rules-based international order. This is predicated, however, on sustained U.S. commitment, continued progress in resolving the South China Sea dispute, and Vietnam’s willingness to navigate the complexities of its relationship with China.
The Fourteenth Dialogue underscores a crucial transformation in the strategic landscape. The United States, recognizing the limitations of traditional alliance models, is actively pursuing partnerships with nations on the periphery of great-power competition – nations like Vietnam. The challenge will be to translate this newfound alignment into tangible security outcomes while managing the inevitable tensions with China. Ultimately, the success of this evolving relationship will depend on the ability of both nations to demonstrate a commitment to dialogue, transparency, and a shared vision for a stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific. The questions that remain are: Can the United States maintain its credibility as a security partner in the face of China’s assertive behavior? Can Vietnam balance its strategic interests with the potential ramifications of deepening ties with Washington? The answers to these questions will undoubtedly shape the future of regional security.