As the sun set over the majestic Taj Mahal, President Narendra Modi addressed a packed crowd of dignitaries and citizens alike, his voice booming with a sense of national pride. "The world is watching us, and we must respond to that attention," he declared, underscoring the need for India to assert its growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region. This moment encapsulates the transformation of India into a more confident and assertive global power.
India's emergence as a major player on the world stage has significant implications for global stability, alliances, and security. As the second-most populous country and a rapidly industrializing economy, India's rising assertiveness is likely to challenge existing power dynamics in the region. Its strategic expansionism will need to be carefully managed to avoid destabilizing the already complex web of relationships with China, Japan, and the United States.
The historical background of Sino-Indian relations is marked by periods of tension and conflict, including the 1962 border war and the 2017 Doklam standoff with China. However, in recent years, India has sought to reassert its influence through a combination of economic, diplomatic, and military means. The Indian government's "Act East" policy, launched in 2008, aims to strengthen ties with Southeast Asian nations and promote regional economic integration.
India's growing assertiveness has been facilitated by the strengthening of its economy, which has become increasingly interconnected with global markets. India's GDP growth rate has averaged over 7% since 2010, making it one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world. This has enabled the government to invest heavily in modernizing its military and expanding its diplomatic footprint.
The Indian government has also been actively pursuing strategic partnerships with key players in the region, including Japan and Australia. The three nations have signed several high-profile agreements, including a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP) with Japan, aimed at promoting cooperation in areas such as defense, trade, and technology.
However, not all regional powers share India's enthusiasm for its growing assertiveness. China, which has long considered India to be a threat to its regional influence, has taken a harder line against New Delhi's expansionism. Beijing has accused India of "provoking" the region by deploying nuclear-capable ballistic missile submarines in the Bay of Bengal.
According to Dr. Vivek Chandrashekar, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, "India's growing assertiveness is both a response to China's aggression and an attempt to fill the power vacuum left by the United States' withdrawal from the region." He notes that India's military modernization efforts are likely to be driven in part by a desire to counterbalance China's military presence in the region.
The Indian government has been actively pursuing its own version of the "Indo-Pacific" concept, which envisions a network of regional partnerships and alliances aimed at promoting stability and security. The concept is reflected in the recently launched "Global Infrastructure Connectivity Partnership" (GICP), which aims to promote connectivity projects across the region.
As India continues to assert its influence in the Indo-Pacific, policymakers and diplomats will need to carefully manage the potential risks and benefits of this trend. While India's growing assertiveness presents opportunities for cooperation with other regional powers, it also poses challenges to existing power dynamics and may be seen as a threat by some nations.
In the short term, the next six months are likely to see increased tensions between India and China over issues such as border disputes and maritime rights in the South China Sea. However, Indian officials have signaled a willingness to engage with Beijing on key issues, including climate change and counter-terrorism cooperation.
Looking further ahead, India's growing assertiveness is likely to have significant implications for regional stability and global power dynamics. As a rapidly industrializing economy and a nuclear-armed major power, India will be increasingly important in shaping the future of the Indo-Pacific region.
As we look to the future, it is essential that policymakers and diplomats engage with India in a nuanced and multifaceted way, recognizing both its opportunities and challenges as a rising global power.