Historical Context & Stakeholder Dynamics
The conflict’s roots are deeply embedded in Sudan’s post-independence history, fueled by decades of tribal conflict, political instability, and the ambitions of military figures like General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti). The 2019 overthrow of Omar al-Bashir and the subsequent power-sharing agreement laid the groundwork for the current crisis, ultimately failing to address fundamental issues of security and governance. The RSF, originally a paramilitary force, gained significant influence through its involvement in the Darfur conflict, further complicating the situation. As Dr. Fatima Ahmed, a senior researcher at the Institute for Strategic Studies in Cairo, noted, “The Quad’s intervention reflects a recognition that the traditional state-centric approach has failed, and a willingness to directly challenge the structural drivers of the conflict.”
Key stakeholders remain deeply divided. The SAF, led by Burhan, views the Quad’s demands for civilian control as a direct threat to its authority, while the RSF, effectively operating as a de facto state within a state, resists any loss of control. Egypt, a longstanding partner to both factions, is strategically positioning itself as a key mediator, leveraging its relationships within the Sudanese civil and political forces forum, initiated in July 2024, alongside the U.S. efforts through the Jeddah Process. Saudi Arabia, motivated by regional security concerns and a desire to stabilize the Red Sea, has been a consistent supporter of the SAF, while the UAE’s involvement has historically been more complex, often involving support for various factions.
Recent Developments & Strategic Shifts
- Jeddah Process Acceleration: The Quad’s intervention is closely aligned with the ongoing Jeddah Process, spearheaded by the United States and Saudi Arabia, aiming to achieve a permanent ceasefire within six months.
- Egyptian Forum Momentum: The first round of the Sudanese civil and political forces forum, held in Cairo, has been viewed as a crucial step towards building a broad-based coalition for a civilian transition.
- Red Sea Security Concerns: The conflict’s impact on regional security, particularly the disruption of maritime trade routes in the Red Sea, is a key factor driving Quad engagement. The threat of terrorist and extremist groups exploiting the instability has also become a focal point.Future Impact & Prognosis
Short-term, the Quad’s intervention will likely focus on exerting pressure on the SAF and RSF to adhere to the nine-month transition timeline. However, achieving a genuine ceasefire and a stable transition faces immense hurdles. Long-term, success hinges on Sudan’s ability to address the underlying drivers of conflict, including governance, economic inequality, and the security sector reform. “The next five to ten years will determine whether Sudan can genuinely transition to a stable, democratic state or remains mired in conflict,” predicts Dr. Ahmed. “The Quad’s intervention provides a crucial opportunity, but it’s ultimately up to the Sudanese people to seize it.”