In a published statement ahead of the visit, Ongoing violence continues to displace civilians and to deepen an already acute humanitarian crisis. Women and girls continue to bear the brunt, including through conflict-related sexual violence. First, the United Kingdom reiterates the urgent need for an immediate cessation of hostilities and a return to the political process. We urge all parties to use this immediate period to engage in genuine and inclusive dialogue. We welcome the work of AU Special Envoy President Kikwete, and the close cooperation between the UN, the AU, and IGAD in support of peace and dialogue.
Background
The statement does not mention prior meetings or agreements directly preceding this speech; however, it references the 2018 peace agreement as a foundational requirement for credible elections. The UNMISS continues to play a critical role in supporting peace and stability. The Mission provides a vital source of protection and support: helping to prevent and respond to intercommunal violence, maintaining a protective presence in areas at risk of conflict, facilitating humanitarian assistance, and supporting vital dialogue between communities.
Analysis
The statement identifies several key challenges. The immediate need for a cessation of hostilities is predicated on the willingness of all parties to engage in “genuine and inclusive dialogue,” a condition that remains conspicuously absent from the available information. The emphasis on elections strengthening, rather than undermining, peace and stability implies a critical assessment of the current political landscape. Public resources must be managed responsibly, transparently, and in the interests of the South Sudanese people. Essential services remain severely underfunded. The consequences are felt most acutely by ordinary South Sudanese: just 2 per cent of the national budget is currently spent on health and education.
Implications
The UK’s stance signals a heightened concern regarding the government’s capacity to deliver stability. The prioritization of UNMISS support reflects a diminished confidence in South Sudan’s own security forces and governance structures. Functioning services, particularly healthcare, are increasingly critical as the risk grows of Ebola spreading into South Sudan. Should the visit yield no tangible improvement in conditions on the ground, it risks further isolating the UK’s diplomatic efforts.
Outlook
If the transitional government does not cooperate fully with UNMISS, or if the conditions envisaged in the 2018 peace agreement are not met, then a return to conflict remains a significant possibility. Should the election process proceed without addressing key issues of political space and security, it risks exacerbating existing tensions and undermining any prospect of lasting peace. The statement does not address the ongoing humanitarian crisis or its potential impact on regional stability.
Conclusion
The UK’s repeated call for cooperation with UNMISS highlights a fundamental lack of trust in the South Sudanese government’s ability to deliver on its commitments, leaving open the question of how effective external pressure can truly influence outcomes within such a complex and volatile context.
