The situation in Somalia has been shaped by decades of civil conflict, punctuated by interventions from the United Nations, African Union, and, notably, Western nations. The collapse of the Siad Barre regime in 1991 unleashed a chaotic period characterized by warlordism, clan-based violence, and the rise of extremist groups, most prominently Al-Shabaab. This instability created fertile ground for illicit activities, including piracy, arms trafficking, and human trafficking, further complicating the humanitarian landscape. The subsequent interventions, while aimed at restoring order and providing humanitarian assistance, have, in some instances, inadvertently exacerbated existing tensions and contributed to the erosion of accountability. The current conflict, fuelled by Al-Shabaab’s resurgence and the political maneuvering of various factions, continues to inflict immense suffering on the Somali people.
Recent developments, particularly the passing of the Juvenile Justice Bill in March 2025 and the adoption of amendments to the Criminal Procedure Code Bill in January 2025, represent demonstrable steps towards strengthening the rule of law. These legislative advancements, championed by the Somali government with UK support, signal a recognition of the need for a more robust legal framework. However, their implementation is hampered by a myriad of factors, including a weak judicial system, corruption, and a lack of resources. “The legal reforms are essential, but they are only one piece of the puzzle,” argues Dr. Fatima Hassan, Senior Research Fellow at the International Crisis Group. “Without addressing the underlying causes of conflict and ensuring genuine accountability, the legal framework will remain ineffective.”
Key Stakeholders and Motivations
The key stakeholders involved in Somalia’s future are numerous and their motivations often diverge. The Somali government, under President Abdirazak Hassan, is driven by the primary goal of securing its borders, consolidating its authority, and achieving economic stability. This necessitates strengthening security cooperation with international partners, including the UK, while simultaneously navigating the complex dynamics of its federal system. Al-Shabaab, the militant group, remains the central security threat, fueled by grievances against the government and operating with a decentralized network. External actors, including the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, play a significant role in providing security assistance and political support, often prioritizing strategic interests over human rights considerations. The United Nations, through the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) and peacekeeping operations, bears the responsibility of monitoring and reporting on human rights violations, though its influence is often constrained by access limitations and political sensitivities.
Data and Trends
According to data compiled by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), conflict intensity in Somalia has increased significantly in the past six months, largely concentrated in the southern and central regions. This escalation is directly linked to Al-Shabaab’s territorial gains and its ability to carry out sophisticated attacks targeting government facilities, infrastructure, and civilian populations. Reports from Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch consistently document widespread human rights violations, including extrajudicial killings, arbitrary detention, sexual violence, and restrictions on freedom of expression. “The situation is deteriorating rapidly,” states Dr. Peter Takoulali, Head of Africa Division at Human Rights Watch. “The lack of accountability for these abuses is fueling a culture of impunity and undermining the rule of law.”
The UN’s role has been increasingly targeted. According to a report from OHCHR in March 2025, access to conflict zones remains severely restricted, hindering the ability to conduct independent investigations and provide effective assistance to victims of human rights violations. The challenges facing the National Human Rights Commission are particularly acute. “Without tangible support and a clear mandate, the Commission will struggle to fulfill its mandate,” notes Ambassador Sarah Johnson, Head of the UK’s Delegation to the UN Human Rights Council. “The international community must prioritize the establishment of a functional and effective National Human Rights Commission.”
Short-Term and Long-Term Outlook
Over the next six months, the conflict is likely to intensify, with Al-Shabaab continuing to exploit the vulnerabilities of the Somali state. Political instability, driven by upcoming elections and ongoing power struggles, will further exacerbate the security situation. The humanitarian crisis will worsen, with millions of Somalis facing food insecurity and displacement. Long-term, the future of Somalia hinges on its ability to achieve sustainable peace and reconciliation. Without fundamental reforms addressing the root causes of conflict, including clan-based grievances, corruption, and economic inequality, the country remains vulnerable to instability and external interference. “The challenge is not simply to contain Al-Shabaab, but to build a Somalia that is inclusive, just, and resilient,” argues Dr. Hassan.
Call for Reflection
The unfolding paradox in Somalia – a nation simultaneously achieving security gains and enduring profound human rights challenges – demands a critical and sustained engagement. It requires a reassessment of the assumptions underpinning international interventions, prioritizing not just security outcomes but also the protection and promotion of human rights. The future of Somalia, and indeed the stability of the wider Horn of Africa region, rests on a commitment to building a Somalia where the rule of law prevails, human rights are respected, and all Somalis can live in peace and dignity. We must ask ourselves: what truly constitutes “success” in Somalia, and are we – as a global community – adequately measuring it?