The Sahel, encompassing parts of Mauritania, Senegal, Mali, Niger, Chad, Burkina Faso, and increasingly, portions of Benin and Togo, has long been a region of strategic importance. Historically, it served as a crucial buffer between French colonial influence and British interests in West Africa. Post-independence, the region was characterized by a complex interplay of Cold War geopolitics, with various nations vying for influence, often through military assistance and proxy conflicts. The collapse of the Soviet Union left a vacuum, allowing non-state actors, primarily Islamist extremist groups like al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and increasingly, the Islamic State in the Sahara and Sinai (ISIS-Saharan Province), to establish a foothold. This environment was further exacerbated by weak governance, ethnic tensions, and economic disparities, creating fertile ground for recruitment and radicalization.
The core issue within the Sahel today is a profoundly complex security architecture. The military coups in Mali (2020), Niger (2023), and the ongoing instability in Burkina Faso demonstrate the fragility of democratic institutions and the allure of military solutions, particularly when coupled with the perceived inability of national governments to effectively combat insecurity. France’s long-standing military presence, Operation Barkhane, ended in 2022 following immense casualties and waning local support. The subsequent deployment of multinational forces under the Multinational Force Intervention Task Force (MFIT), primarily composed of European nations, aims to counter jihadist threats but has faced significant operational challenges and accusations of human rights abuses. “The MFIT is not a sustainable solution,” argues Dr. Fatima Diallo, Senior Analyst at the International Crisis Group. “It’s a tactical maneuver, not a strategic framework, and requires a fundamental shift in approach that addresses the root causes of instability.”
Stakeholders involved are numerous and deeply intertwined. Russia, through the Wagner Group, has dramatically increased its influence, ostensibly providing security assistance but increasingly viewed as a destabilizing force. China’s economic interests, particularly in resource extraction, are growing, often operating with minimal oversight and potentially exacerbating existing tensions. The European Union, through the Neighborhood, Development and International Cooperation Instrument (NDICI), provides significant funding for security and development programs, however, its effectiveness is often hampered by bureaucratic delays and a lack of coordination with local actors. Within the Sahel, the governments of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, despite recent military rule, retain significant leverage due to the ongoing need for security assistance.
Recent Developments (Past Six Months): The rapid deterioration of the humanitarian situation across the region, coupled with reports of escalating violence against civilians, has intensified pressure on the EU to take decisive action. A significant development is the increasing involvement of local militias, often allied with the Wagner Group, providing crucial ground support to the MFIT. Simultaneously, the flow of migrants seeking refuge from the conflict – primarily from Niger and Mali – has surged towards Europe, placing immense strain on border security and fueling political anxieties. A report by the Institute for Security Studies highlights that the number of migrants apprehended attempting to reach Europe via the Sahel has risen by nearly 40% in the last six months.
Looking Ahead: Short-term (next 6 months), we can anticipate a continued escalation of violence, exacerbated by the approaching dry season, which will further displace populations and hinder humanitarian efforts. The EU’s ability to coordinate a unified response – one that truly prioritizes local ownership and addresses governance issues – remains questionable. Longer-term (5-10 years), the Sahel faces a grim outlook unless fundamental changes are implemented. Without addressing the underlying drivers of instability—poverty, weak governance, and lack of economic opportunity—the region risks becoming a permanent haven for extremist groups and a major source of migration pressure on Europe. Furthermore, the increased Russian influence could fundamentally reshape the geopolitical landscape, potentially establishing a new sphere of influence within Africa. “The EU’s biggest mistake will be to treat this as a purely security problem,” warns Dr. Jean-Luc Dubois, Professor of African Studies at Sciences Po. “It’s a human security crisis that demands a holistic approach – one that focuses on sustainable development, good governance, and the empowerment of local communities.”
The situation in the Sahel represents a profound test of the international community’s commitment to proactive diplomacy and effective crisis management. It’s a cascade of instability, and the consequences of inaction will be felt far beyond its borders. The question is not if Europe will be impacted, but how dramatically.