The roots of Somalia’s protracted food insecurity extend far beyond recent climatic events. The collapse of the central government in 1991 unleashed a decade of civil war, profoundly disrupting agricultural production and displacing millions. Subsequent interventions – notably the 2006-2009 intervention by the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and the subsequent 2017-2023 operation, Attoor, with multinational contributions – aimed to stabilize the country and facilitate humanitarian access, but ultimately failed to address the underlying structural issues. The protracted conflict has fostered a climate of instability, hindering long-term development, and creating fertile ground for extremist groups like Al-Shabaab to exploit the vulnerability of the population. Furthermore, the land tenure system, historically based on clan affiliation, continues to complicate access to resources and fuel inter-communal tensions.
Historical Context: A Cycle of Collapse and Intervention
The Somalian experience offers a stark case study in the challenges of protracted humanitarian intervention. Prior to the 1991 collapse, the state invested heavily in agriculture, cultivating significant wheat and sorghum production. The ensuing fragmentation led to a dramatic decline in agricultural output, compounded by the diversion of resources to warlord governance and illicit activities. The protracted civil war created “protection deficits,” where the state was unable to adequately protect its citizens, leading to widespread displacement and a reliance on external assistance. “Interventions, however well-intentioned, often inadvertently reinforce existing vulnerabilities rather than building sustainable resilience,” argues Dr. Fatima Hassan, Senior Fellow at the International Crisis Group. “The history demonstrates a pattern of external actors attempting to impose solutions without adequately understanding or addressing the deeply rooted local dynamics.”
Key Stakeholders and Motivated Responses
The humanitarian landscape surrounding Somalia is populated by a complex network of actors, each with their own objectives and priorities. The United Nations, through agencies like UNHCR and UNICEF, plays a central role in coordinating aid efforts, while the World Food Programme provides direct food assistance. However, access remains a persistent obstacle, often restricted by insecurity, bureaucratic hurdles, and the operational constraints imposed by Al-Shabaab, who control significant territory. The United States, through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), is a major donor, alongside the European Union, the UK, and various Gulf states. Each actor pursues its own strategic goals, frequently leading to competition for influence and diverging approaches to conflict resolution. “A key challenge is achieving a truly unified response, which necessitates greater coordination and a shared understanding of the underlying drivers of the crisis,” states Professor David Shearer, Director of the Centre for Humanitarian Change at the University of Melbourne. “Competing agendas can significantly hamper effective assistance delivery.”
Recent Developments and Shifting Dynamics
Over the past six months, the situation has deteriorated further, driven by a confluence of factors. The ongoing drought, now classified as the longest and most severe in 40 years, has decimated livestock herds – the primary source of income and food for many pastoral communities. Rising global food prices, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, have further compounded the problem, making food assistance increasingly expensive to procure. Al-Shabaab has intensified its attacks on humanitarian convoys, disrupting aid delivery and forcing aid workers to operate in increasingly dangerous conditions. In late 2023, the humanitarian corridor established to facilitate aid delivery to the Galmudug region was temporarily shut down due to ongoing security threats. Recent data from Save the Children highlights a concerning increase in child malnutrition rates, with stunting prevalence rising to nearly 30% in some areas.
Short-Term and Long-Term Projections
Looking ahead, the immediate outlook remains bleak. Without sustained and increased funding, the humanitarian crisis is likely to deepen, pushing more Somalis into food insecurity and exacerbating existing tensions. Over the next six months, we can anticipate continued displacement, increased malnutrition rates, and heightened security risks. Longer-term, the situation hinges on the future of the Somali government and its ability to establish effective governance and security. The presence of extremist groups and the lack of economic opportunities create a breeding ground for instability, potentially leading to a protracted state of conflict and humanitarian need. “The failure to address the root causes of insecurity and poverty will only perpetuate a cycle of crisis,” warns Dr. Hassan. “A truly sustainable solution requires a comprehensive approach that combines humanitarian assistance with political and economic reform.”
The crisis in Somalia presents a powerful reminder of the interconnectedness of global security and human well-being. As nations grapple with increasingly complex humanitarian challenges, it is imperative that they prioritize long-term solutions, foster genuine partnerships with local communities, and address the underlying drivers of instability. The fate of Somalia, and indeed the stability of the wider region, demands nothing less. It’s a call for collaborative action, a recognition of our shared responsibility, and a willingness to confront the uncomfortable truth: that the hunger threshold is being pushed to its breaking point.