## The Genesis of a Fragile Accord
The Hudaydah Agreement, intended to secure the Red Sea port city’s critical lifeline for humanitarian aid and facilitate the withdrawal of Houthi forces, emerged from a desperate attempt to de-escalate the conflict following years of devastating civil war. The agreement, facilitated by the United Nations and Oman, was a cornerstone of the UN’s broader strategy to achieve a comprehensive political solution. Key stakeholders included the internationally recognized Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), backed by the Saudi-led coalition, the Houthi movement controlling the capital Sana’a and much of the country, and regional powers like Iran and the United Arab Emirates, each vying for influence. Initial optimism, fueled by cautious movements and limited ceasefires, gradually eroded as underlying tensions and competing agendas intensified. “The Hudaydah Agreement never truly represented a comprehensive settlement,” explains Dr. Fatima al-Zahra, a senior political analyst at the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies. “It was a tactical pause, a holding action predicated on a lack of trust and a failure to address the core drivers of the conflict – namely, the distribution of power and resources.”
### The UN Mission and Its Diminishing Role
The UN Mission to Support the Hudaydah Agreement (UNMHA), established in 2019, was tasked with monitoring the implementation of the agreement, ensuring the safe passage of goods, and observing the withdrawal of Houthi forces from the port. However, UNMHA’s mandate has been consistently challenged by the Houthis, who have repeatedly obstructed its operations, hindering its ability to effectively fulfill its core objectives. Data released by the UN in December 2023 revealed that Houthi violations of the maritime corridor – a key component of the agreement – remained persistent, with 68 recorded incidents, including 33 instances of gunfire. As of this writing, the mission is slated for closure, a process fraught with uncertainties. “The closure of UNMHA doesn’t automatically resolve the situation,” states Professor David Richards, a specialist in Middle Eastern security at King’s College London. “It simply removes a key mechanism for accountability and creates a vacuum that could be exploited by all parties.”
## The Human Cost and Strategic Realities
The humanitarian crisis in Yemen remains one of the worst in the world. Decades of conflict have ravaged infrastructure, disrupted agricultural production, and created a generation of displaced individuals. According to the UN, over 17 million Yemenis face food insecurity, and malnutrition rates, particularly among children, are alarmingly high. The ongoing detention of aid workers by the Houthis further complicates humanitarian operations, restricting access to those most in need. As of November 2023, over 140 aid workers remain detained, many facing arbitrary charges and facing serious threats to their safety. The situation is exacerbated by the ongoing blockade of key ports, limiting the flow of essential goods and services. Recent reports indicate a sharp increase in armed clashes between the Houthi movement and separatist forces in the south of Yemen, further destabilizing the country and jeopardizing the fragile humanitarian landscape.
### The Role of Regional Powers & Shifting Alliances
The conflict in Yemen is inextricably linked to broader regional dynamics. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, supporting the PLC and the coalition, have long-standing strategic interests in maintaining stability in the region and countering Iranian influence. The Houthis, backed by Iran, represent a significant challenge to these interests. Recent developments, including increased Iranian support and shifting alliances within the coalition, have further complicated the situation. There have been reports of UAE involvement in funding and equipping southern separatist forces, ostensibly to counter Houthi advances. The UK, through its continued diplomatic engagement and support for the PLC, seeks to contribute to a stable and prosperous Yemen, but faces immense challenges in navigating the complex web of competing interests and achieving a lasting resolution. “The Hudaydah Agreement exposed fundamental flaws in the international approach to Yemen,” argues Dr. Amal Hassan, a researcher at the Middle East Institute. “It was predicated on a linear understanding of conflict resolution that failed to account for the deep-seated political, economic, and social divisions at play.”
## Future Trajectories and a Call for Sustained Attention
In the short term (next 6 months), we can expect continued instability in Yemen, with the Houthis likely to maintain their control over key ports and continue to obstruct UNMHA operations. The closure of UNMHA is likely to exacerbate tensions and create a power vacuum. In the long term (5-10 years), the potential for a protracted stalemate remains high, with Yemen likely to remain a battleground for regional and international powers. A negotiated settlement, predicated on a just and inclusive political process, is essential, but faces significant obstacles. The UK – and the broader international community – must redouble its efforts to support a viable political solution, emphasizing the need for immediate and unconditional release of all detained aid workers and a commitment to addressing the humanitarian crisis. The unraveling of the Hudaydah Agreement serves as a stark reminder of the complexity and fragility of conflict resolution in the Middle East and the enduring need for sustained attention and strategic engagement. The challenge lies not only in addressing the immediate crisis but also in fostering a long-term vision for Yemen’s future – a future built on peace, stability, and prosperity for all its people. We need a renewed commitment to dialogue, a willingness to challenge entrenched interests, and a recognition that the fate of Yemen, and indeed, the stability of the region, depends on our collective action.