Historically, Sudan’s internal conflicts – particularly the Second Sudanese Civil War (1983-2005) and the subsequent Darfur conflict – have been characterized by ethnic tensions, resource disputes, and the involvement of external actors. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), commanded by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, represent a complex web of alliances and rivalries, rooted in the 2021 coup that derailed Sudan’s transition to democracy. Decades of autocratic rule and ongoing instability have created a fertile ground for armed groups, exacerbating violence and undermining efforts at reconciliation.
Key stakeholders are numerous and deeply entrenched. The SAF, largely comprised of former Janjaweed militias, retains significant power and influence, supported by elements within the Egyptian military. The RSF, a more recent force, commands a substantial following among marginalized groups, particularly in the Darfur region. International actors, including the United States, the European Union, and Gulf states, have varying degrees of involvement, often pursuing competing strategic interests. Organizations like the United Nations, the World Food Programme, and Médecins Sans Frontières are working to deliver desperately needed aid, but face immense obstacles due to the ongoing fighting and restrictions on access. According to a recent report by the International Crisis Group, “the conflict is increasingly characterized by a brutal disregard for civilian life, with both sides accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity.” Dr. Stephanie Prince, a Senior Analyst at the International Crisis Group, notes, “The RSF’s tactics—including the use of drones and heavy artillery in densely populated areas—demonstrate a calculated strategy to inflict maximum damage and terrorize the civilian population.”
Data paints a harrowing picture. The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) estimates that over 18 million people – more than half the population – are facing crisis or worse levels of food insecurity. The World Food Programme reports that food prices have skyrocketed, driven by conflict and disruptions to supply chains. In the Kordofan region alone, approximately 100,000 people have been displaced in recent months, according to UNHCR figures, stretching already overburdened humanitarian resources. The situation is further complicated by the widespread sexual and gender-based violence, which, as highlighted by Volker Türk, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, “requires a comprehensive and sustained response to address the systemic nature of the problem.” The RSF and allied militias have been repeatedly implicated in egregious human rights abuses, including summary executions, sexual assault, and the destruction of villages.
Recent developments, particularly the intensified drone and rocket attacks targeting humanitarian convoys and health facilities, illustrate the deliberate obstruction of aid delivery. The deliberate targeting of aid workers by both sides raises serious concerns about the potential for war crimes. Furthermore, the continued restrictions on access imposed by the warring factions—despite numerous appeals from the international community—are hampering efforts to reach millions in desperate need. Analysis by the Atlantic Council suggests that a crucial impediment is the lack of a verifiable ceasefire, with both the SAF and RSF continuing to mobilize troops and launch offensives. “The absence of a clear timeline for a political settlement further exacerbates the humanitarian crisis,” observes Dr. Lina Abi-Fares, a Senior Fellow at the Middle East Council on Foreign Relations, “the longer the conflict persists, the more complex and intractable the situation becomes.”
Looking ahead, within the next six months, the situation is projected to deteriorate further. Without a significant shift in the conflict dynamics, food insecurity will likely intensify, pushing more people into famine. The risk of a large-scale humanitarian catastrophe – involving mass starvation and displacement – remains alarmingly high. Long-term, if the conflict continues unabated, Sudan risks becoming a failed state, with devastating consequences for regional stability and contributing to a new wave of refugee flows. The collapse of infrastructure, coupled with the ongoing violence, threatens to destabilize the entire Sahel region.
This situation compels a concerted, unified global response. Immediate measures must include intensified diplomatic efforts to secure a verifiable ceasefire, increased humanitarian assistance – including expanded access to affected areas – and robust investigations into alleged war crimes. Moreover, the international community must exert pressure on all parties to uphold their obligations under international humanitarian law and protect civilians. A key element will be securing the commitment from the RSF and SAF to allow unrestricted humanitarian access, as demanded by the UN Security Council.
The unfolding tragedy in Sudan serves as a stark reminder of the enduring consequences of unresolved conflicts and the imperative of upholding human rights and international law. As the world grapples with this deepening crisis, it demands a commitment to collective action – a shared recognition that the future of Sudan, and the stability of the broader region, hangs in the balance. We must actively engage in a process of reflection and discussion, challenging our assumptions and seeking innovative solutions to avert a humanitarian disaster. How can we collectively hold those responsible accountable, and what strategic interventions – beyond immediate aid – are necessary to build a more just and peaceful future for Sudan?