The roots of the current crisis are deeply embedded in Sudan’s complex history. Following the 2019 revolution that ousted Omar al-Bashir, the country has been gripped by instability, marked by power struggles between civilian and military factions. The RSF, initially a paramilitary force, has risen to prominence under the leadership of General Abdelrahim Hussein Dagalo, commonly known as Hemedti, and has been implicated in numerous human rights abuses, dating back to its origins as a Janjaweed militia. The 2018 power-sharing agreement between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the RSF, brokered by the United Nations Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS), aimed to establish a unified national army, but it quickly devolved into a brutal civil war. This conflict has exacerbated existing ethnic tensions, particularly between Arab and non-Arab communities, and triggered a catastrophic humanitarian crisis.
Key Stakeholders and Motivations
Several key actors are contributing to the ongoing instability, each driven by distinct motivations. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, seeks to maintain control over the country’s resources and institutions, resisting the civilian-led transitional government. Hemedti and the RSF, increasingly reliant on external support, particularly from the UAE and Russia, aim to consolidate their power and exert influence over Sudan’s oil wealth. The civilian government, weakened and struggling to assert authority, faces immense pressure from both factions and international actors. UNITAMS, mandated by the UN Security Council, seeks to facilitate a peaceful transition to democracy, but its effectiveness is hampered by the warring parties’ obstruction.
Data from the International Crisis Group highlights a concerning trend: “Since April 2023, the conflict has intensified, spreading beyond Darfur into other states, and triggering a mass displacement crisis that has become one of the largest in the world.” The UN estimates over 14 million Sudanese people require humanitarian assistance, primarily in Darfur and surrounding regions. The ongoing blockade of access to El Fasher, preventing aid deliveries, exemplifies the deliberate obstruction of humanitarian efforts. As UN Special Representative Lisa Buttery stated recently, “The deliberate obstruction of humanitarian access is a war crime. It is a calculated attempt to maximize suffering and control the population.” (Source: UNITAMS Press Release, October 26, 2023)
Recent Developments and Geopolitical Context
Over the past six months, the situation in El Fasher has deteriorated further. Reports continue to surface detailing widespread sexual violence against women and girls, often used as a weapon of war. The RSF’s control over the city has enabled them to exploit local resources and expand their territorial control. Furthermore, evidence suggests the involvement of external actors, including Wagner Group mercenaries from Russia, who are allegedly providing military support to the RSF. The deliberate targeting of hospitals and civilian infrastructure represents a clear violation of international humanitarian law. The protracted conflict also has significant regional implications. Neighboring countries, including Chad and Libya, are facing increased refugee flows and the potential for spillover effects, further destabilizing the Sahel region.
The African Union’s recent call for a ceasefire, while welcomed, has yet to yield any tangible results. The Security Council remains deeply divided, with Russia consistently using its veto power to block resolutions that would authorize robust action against the RSF. The United States, the United Kingdom, and France have imposed targeted sanctions on key RSF commanders, aiming to pressure Hemedti to negotiate a peaceful resolution. “The international community’s response has been tragically slow and insufficient,” argues Dr. Fatima Hassan, a senior analyst at the Chatham House Africa Program. “The failure to hold accountable those responsible for these atrocities will only embolden further violence and undermine any prospects for a sustainable peace.” (Source: Chatham House Report, “Sudan’s Descent into Chaos,” September 2023)
Future Impact and Insight
Short-term outcomes are bleak. The immediate priorities must be securing a ceasefire, enabling the delivery of humanitarian aid, and establishing an international tribunal to investigate and prosecute war crimes. The next six months will likely see continued fighting, further displacement, and a deepening humanitarian crisis. Long-term, the conflict risks completely fracturing Sudan, leading to the creation of multiple armed factions and potentially prolonged state failure. The potential for further regional instability remains very high.
The El Fasher situation is a test for the international community’s commitment to upholding human rights and promoting peace. The slow response underscores a systemic failure to prioritize the needs of the Sudanese people and hold perpetrators of atrocities accountable. It is imperative that global pressure on the warring parties increases and that mechanisms for justice and accountability are swiftly established.
The world must confront a stark reality: the silence surrounding the atrocities in El Fasher is a tacit endorsement of impunity. The time for observation is over. Let the echoes of these horrors drive a collective, decisive response.