The core of the Forum’s agenda – promoting the Middle Corridor – focuses on enhancing transportation infrastructure and facilitating trade between Europe and Asia. This route, primarily passing through Georgia, Azerbaijan, and potentially Armenia, represents a powerful alternative to traditional routes like the Suez Canal, offering reduced transit times and potentially lower costs. Thailand’s involvement, as the only Southeast Asian participant invited by Georgia, demonstrates a recognition of this strategic importance and a proactive approach to capitalizing on the shifting dynamics of global trade. The presence of key figures like Nikol Pashinyan, Prime Minister of Armenia, and Ali Asadov, Prime Minister of Azerbaijan, further contextualizes the forum’s significance within the South Caucasus.
Historically, Thailand’s foreign policy has primarily revolved around strengthening ties within ASEAN and fostering relationships with major global powers like China and the United States. However, recent years have seen a gradual, though previously understated, interest in cultivating partnerships within the broader Eurasian region. This expansion is fueled by several factors: a desire to reduce reliance on China as a primary trading partner, a growing recognition of the strategic advantages offered by the Middle Corridor, and a need to secure access to new markets and investment opportunities. The Forum in Tbilisi represents a concrete step in executing this broader strategy.
Key stakeholders in this development include the Georgian government, actively promoting the Middle Corridor initiative; the Azerbaijani and Armenian governments, seeking to attract investment and integrate into the global economy; and, increasingly, Thailand. The Thai government’s motivation is multifaceted. Beyond securing access to the Middle Corridor, Thailand seeks to bolster its manufacturing sector by tapping into new markets, and to leverage Georgia’s strategic location to enhance its competitiveness in global supply chains. Data from the World Trade Organization indicates a 15% increase in trade volume between Georgia and European nations over the past decade, suggesting a viable and growing market.
The discussions that transpired during the Forum, particularly the meetings held with Georgian Chamber of Commerce and Industry President Giorgi Pertaia, focused on tangible cooperation opportunities. Areas of mutual interest identified included infrastructure development (particularly rail and port facilities), tourism (drawing on Georgia’s burgeoning tourism sector), aviation (linking Southeast Asia to Europe), and renewable energy (leveraging Georgia’s abundant solar and hydro resources). Furthermore, the agreement to encourage business exchanges between the private sectors indicates a strategic commitment to fostering direct investment and trade relationships. According to a report by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (ERD), investment in Georgian infrastructure projects rose by 22% in 2024, demonstrating investor confidence in the region’s potential.
Looking ahead, the short-term (next 6 months) impact is likely to see increased diplomatic engagement between Thailand and Georgia, potentially leading to the signing of memoranda of understanding focused on specific sectors. Further exploration of joint projects related to infrastructure and logistics is anticipated, and the Thai government will likely intensify efforts to attract Thai investors to the Georgian market. Long-term (5-10 years), Thailand’s presence in the South Caucasus could evolve into a more established partnership, potentially involving joint ventures in energy, transportation, and digital infrastructure. However, several challenges remain. Political instability in Armenia and Azerbaijan could disrupt trade flows. Regulatory hurdles and bureaucratic inefficiencies within Georgia could impede investment. Ultimately, Thailand’s success in this endeavor hinges on its ability to navigate these challenges and forge truly mutually beneficial partnerships. The broader geopolitical context – including ongoing tensions surrounding the South China Sea and the evolving relationship between the United States and China – will also undoubtedly influence the trajectory of this strategic initiative. A critical factor will be maintaining Georgia’s commitment to the Middle Corridor, as any significant shifts in its priorities could jeopardize Thailand’s long-term investment. The ongoing debate regarding the future of energy transit routes within the region adds another layer of complexity, demanding careful strategic positioning from Thailand.