The core discussion at the EAS centered on the Myanmar crisis. The ongoing humanitarian catastrophe, intensified by the military junta’s actions following the 2021 coup, remained a dominant theme. While the EAS, comprised primarily of established democracies, repeatedly called for dialogue and respect for human rights, the lack of substantial leverage—particularly the absence of direct engagement with the junta—became evident. Data from the International Crisis Group indicated that over 1.5 million people in Myanmar remain internally displaced, with a significant proportion facing severe food insecurity. The meeting resulted in a renewed call for ASEAN to intensify its mediation efforts, emphasizing the importance of the “Five Principles” – good neighbourliness, peaceful settlement of disputes, non-interference in internal affairs, respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, and mutual non-aggression – despite their demonstrable limitations in the context of the junta’s intransigence.
Thailand’s position at the EAS reflected a deliberate strategy. While publicly advocating for a unified ASEAN front, underpinned by the principle of “ASEAN Centrality,” Bangkok privately recognized the limitations of relying solely on Western pressure. The Prime Minister’s emphasis on “good neighbourliness” and “respect for sovereignty” was interpreted, within diplomatic circles, as an attempt to maintain channels of communication with Beijing, despite increasing Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea and concerning economic practices. According to a report by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Thailand’s economic dependence on Chinese investment – exceeding $60 billion in infrastructure projects over the past decade – creates a significant diplomatic constraint. Data from the Bank of Thailand showed a consistent 35% increase in Thai exports to China since 2020.
The broader geopolitical context is equally important. The United States, seeking to revitalize its alliances in the Indo-Pacific, has expressed concerns about Thailand’s deepening ties with China. Washington’s pressure, primarily focused on human rights and democratic governance, appears to have limited direct impact on Thailand’s foreign policy choices. A study by the Albright Institute for Strategic Research highlighted a growing strategic divergence between Bangkok and Washington, driven by differing approaches to regional security and economic development. The US, alongside Australia and India, has been actively promoting alternative infrastructure projects to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative in Southeast Asia.
Furthermore, the Korean Peninsula remained a critical concern. The escalating tensions surrounding North Korea’s nuclear program and ballistic missile tests contributed to ongoing discussions about denuclearization and regional stability. While the EAS could not directly address the situation, it served as a platform for coordination with the United States and Japan on diplomatic and security strategies.
Looking forward, the short-term (next 6 months) impact of the EAS summit will likely see continued efforts to address the humanitarian crisis in Myanmar, albeit with limited success. Thailand will continue to play a mediating role, seeking to leverage its relationships with various stakeholders, including China, to facilitate aid delivery and a negotiated political solution. However, the fundamental challenges—the junta’s unwillingness to compromise and the deep divisions within the ASEAN bloc—will remain.
Longer-term (5-10 years), Thailand’s role in the EAS is expected to evolve. Increased economic competition between China and the United States will undoubtedly shape Thailand’s foreign policy choices, potentially leading to a more multi-polar approach. The country’s strategic location and economic importance will continue to make it a key player in regional security deliberations. Moreover, Thailand will likely need to strengthen its own domestic governance and democratic institutions to solidify its position as a credible and respected partner on the global stage. The 2025 EAS summit demonstrated that Thailand’s navigation of this complex landscape will determine not only its own security but also the future stability of Southeast Asia. The question now is whether Thailand can effectively balance competing interests and leverage its position for a genuinely beneficial outcome for the region – or if it will succumb to the pressures of a rapidly shifting global order.