Historically, Thailand’s foreign policy has been defined by its “dual track” approach, simultaneously cultivating close relations with the United States – a legacy of the Cold War – while engaging diplomatically with China, a relationship solidified by economic interdependence and a shared skepticism of Western interventionism. This strategy, particularly solidified through the “5S” Foreign Affairs Masterplan initiated in 2018 – Security, Stability, Strength, Synergy, and Sustainability – aimed to balance these competing influences. Thailand’s hosting of ESCAP, beginning in 1949, reflected this ambition: a commitment to regional development and cooperation framed within a broader geopolitical context. “Thailand’s role has always been to be a bridge, a facilitator of dialogue,” stated Dr. Chai Anantapol, Senior Fellow at the Institute of Political Science, Bangkok, in a recent interview. “But the current situation demands a far more assertive stance, one that recognizes the changing dynamics of power.”
The past six months have witnessed a dramatic acceleration of these trends. The ongoing civil war in Myanmar has created an unprecedented refugee crisis, straining Thailand’s resources and exposing deep divisions within the Thai government. Bangkok’s response has been carefully calibrated, prioritizing humanitarian assistance while simultaneously appealing to ASEAN for a unified solution – a plea that has largely been met with resistance from member states grappling with their own domestic challenges and divergent strategic priorities. Simultaneously, China’s influence in the region is demonstrably growing, reflected in its increasing investments in infrastructure projects across Southeast Asia, often bypassing existing ASEAN frameworks. India, meanwhile, is actively seeking to expand its regional footprint, bolstering its security ties with nations like Thailand through military exercises and defense partnerships.
Data from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) reveals a sharp increase in Chinese naval activity within the South China Sea, primarily through the establishment of a naval base in the Srei Phi Phra Nakhorn Islands, a move that has predictably drawn criticism from Washington and raised concerns among Thailand’s neighbors. Furthermore, trade data indicates a significant shift in Thailand’s economic orientation, with exports to China growing at a rate of 18% year-on-year in 2024, while trade with the United States has plateaued. “Thailand’s economic vulnerabilities are becoming increasingly apparent,” observes Dr. Siriwan Wongsuwan, a professor of International Economics at Chulalongkorn University. “The nation’s reliance on China for trade and investment creates a significant strategic risk, one that demands careful management.”
Looking ahead, the next 6-12 months are likely to see an intensification of the competitive dynamics shaping Southeast Asia. Expect heightened tensions along the Thailand-Myanmar border, fueled by cross-border smuggling and the influx of refugees. China’s continued expansion in the South China Sea will undoubtedly provoke a stronger response from the United States, potentially leading to increased naval patrols and diplomatic pressure. Within ASEAN, divisions over how to address the Myanmar crisis will likely persist, hindering the organization’s ability to effectively mediate or enforce its own norms. Long-term, the scenario points towards a more fragmented regional order, one where Thailand’s role is increasingly defined by its capacity to navigate competing power centers and manage internal vulnerabilities.
The potential for escalation remains significant. A miscalculation in the region, fueled by geopolitical rivalry or domestic instability, could trigger a cascade of events with profound consequences. Thailand’s ability to maintain its strategic neutrality—a position once considered a model of regional diplomacy—is now being fundamentally tested. Furthermore, the rise of nationalist sentiment, particularly within Thailand itself, coupled with increasing concerns about regional security, could jeopardize the long-term viability of ASEAN as a cohesive force. The ultimate trajectory hinges on the willingness of regional actors to prioritize diplomacy and cooperation – a challenge that, given the current climate, appears increasingly difficult. The situation demands a period of introspective assessment, a critical examination of Thailand’s foreign policy and a renewed commitment to multilateralism.