The canal’s significance is undeniable. Opened in 1914, it remains one of the world’s most vital trade routes, handling approximately 8% of global maritime traffic. Its strategic location – connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans – has historically made it a focal point for geopolitical competition, particularly between the United States and, increasingly, China. The Panama Canal’s operational stability and accessibility are therefore intrinsically linked to global economic flows and, by extension, the security interests of numerous nations.
Historically, the canal’s governance has been shaped by significant treaties, most notably the Hay-Bunau-Varilla Treaty of 1903, which granted the United States control over the Panama Canal Zone in exchange for protection against European powers. The subsequent reversion of the canal to Panama in 1999 marked a dramatic shift, though the Panama Canal Authority continues to be influenced by U.S. expertise and oversight. The 2026 International Economic Forum – Latin America and the Caribbean, held in Panama City, became a key catalyst for this renewed Thai interest. As evidenced by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ press release, H.E. Mr. Karn Karuhadej, Economic Advisor to the Foreign Minister, actively engaged with key stakeholders, including the Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean (CAF), ProPanama, and the CMAR, highlighting a deliberate strategy to integrate Panama into Thailand’s broader trade and investment horizons. The invitation to senior representatives of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Panama to visit Thailand to discuss political consultations signaled a commitment to deepening bilateral ties.
Key stakeholders in this evolving dynamic are numerous. The Panamanian government, under President José María Mori, is keenly focused on maximizing revenue from canal transit fees and securing long-term access for regional partners. China’s growing interest in the canal is primarily driven by its expanding maritime trade routes, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, and its strategic ambitions for greater global influence. The United States maintains a continued, albeit diminished, role through security agreements and operational oversight, though shifting priorities have led to a reduced physical presence. Furthermore, ASEAN nations, notably Singapore and Malaysia, are keenly watching the developments, recognizing the potential benefits for their own maritime trade and logistics corridors. “The canal’s importance is not simply about shipping volume,” noted Dr. Elena Ramirez, Senior Fellow at the Latin American Institute for Strategic Studies, “it’s about the principle of access and control – factors increasingly contested in a world of rising geopolitical competition.”
Recent developments further illuminate this trend. The Panamanian government’s continued promotion of accession to the Protocol to the Treaty Concerning the Permanent Neutrality and Operation of the Panama Canal, which allows countries to utilize the canal under specific conditions, underscores Panama’s ambition to expand its reach. Simultaneously, Thailand’s focus on strengthening economic ties with Latin America, particularly in sectors like infrastructure and technology, reveals a strategic calculation centered on diversifying its trade partners and accessing new markets. Figures released by the Thai Department of International Trade in November 2025 showed a 15% increase in trade with Latin American countries, largely driven by agricultural exports and investments in renewable energy projects. “Thailand’s engagement in Panama is fundamentally about building a robust and diversified supply chain,” explained Ms. Suthisiri Vongphaisal, Director-General of the Department of American and South Pacific Affairs, during a recent briefing. “The canal provides a vital artery for this endeavor.”
Looking ahead, the next 6-12 months will likely see continued diplomatic engagement between Thailand and Panama, focusing on securing favorable trade agreements and exploring opportunities for infrastructure development projects within Panama. The 2026 Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group, which Thailand will host, represent another crucial platform for fostering collaboration. Longer-term, the canal’s strategic importance will likely intensify as global trade flows shift further eastward, potentially leading to greater competition for access and transit rights. Furthermore, the ongoing evolution of maritime technology, including autonomous shipping and enhanced surveillance capabilities, could reshape the canal’s operational landscape.
The potential for China to significantly increase its influence in the region – possibly through infrastructure investments or expanded trade routes – presents a considerable challenge. “The canal represents a critical node in a globalized network,” warned Mr. Javier Morales, a specialist in maritime security at the Atlantic Security Forum. “The question is not whether China will seek to expand its influence, but how it will do so, and whether Thailand can successfully navigate the resulting competitive pressures.”
Ultimately, Thailand’s engagement with the Panama Canal – and indeed with Latin America more broadly – serves as a powerful example of a Southeast Asian nation actively shaping its strategic trajectory in a world of intensified geopolitical competition. The continued monitoring of this dynamic, with its interwoven threads of economics, security, and diplomacy, is absolutely warranted, demanding careful assessment and thoughtful reflection on the broader implications for the stability of the Indo-Pacific region.