Historically, Thailand’s foreign policy has been characterized by a pragmatic, non-aligned approach, often prioritizing economic partnerships over ideological commitments. The country has maintained close ties with the United States while simultaneously cultivating relationships with China and other regional players. However, the current administration, under Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, appears intent on proactively shaping Thailand’s role within the region, viewing the ROK as a key partner in fostering economic growth and bolstering security. The FTA, long in negotiation, is projected to boost bilateral trade by as much as 20% over the next five years, largely driven by ROK’s significant demand for agricultural products and Thailand’s growing electronics sector. The commitment to expedite the agreement is part of a larger strategy to attract Korean investment, particularly in strategically important sectors like digital banking (as exemplified by KakaoBank’s planned virtual bank) and industrial development (through the proposed Korean industrial estate).
The primary driver behind this intensified engagement is the ROK’s own strategic orientation. Seoul is pursuing a more assertive foreign policy under President Lee Jae Myung, including bolstering its defense capabilities and seeking greater economic influence throughout the Indo-Pacific. This ambition is fueled, in part, by a growing sense of security concerns regarding North Korea and China’s expanding naval presence in the Yellow Sea. The ROK’s support for Thailand’s FTA initiative signals a willingness to deepen economic ties in exchange for Thailand’s potential support in countering Chinese influence within Southeast Asia. Furthermore, ROK investment aligns with Thailand’s ‘Thailand 4.0’ economic development plan, which seeks to transform the country into a high-value-added economy.
However, the diplomatic exchange is not without underlying tensions. The ROK President’s expressed concern regarding Thai tourists being denied entry into the ROK – a problem stemming from stricter visa requirements and security screenings – highlights a persistent friction point. This issue reflects broader anxieties about Thailand’s border security and the flow of visitors. The Prime Minister’s request for the ROK to increase employment opportunities for Thai citizens within the ROK represents a pragmatic solution to alleviate this issue, driven by both economic considerations and diplomatic sensitivities. Data from the Thai Immigration Bureau consistently indicates a substantial number of Thai nationals traveling to the ROK for tourism, representing a significant source of frustration for the ROK authorities.
Beyond the economic dimension, the discussion around defense cooperation, while not explicitly detailed in the initial release, carries significant weight. The ROK’s increasing military modernization efforts, including its naval expansion and engagement in joint military exercises with the United States, reflect a strategic realignment in the Indo-Pacific. Thailand’s potential willingness to engage in closer security cooperation, particularly in areas related to maritime security and counter-terrorism, could represent a subtle but important shift. As Dr. Somsak Polawat, Senior Fellow at the Institute of Strategic and Political Studies, noted recently, “Thailand’s alignment with the ROK is less about a fundamental change in its strategic orientation and more about a measured response to the evolving regional security environment. It’s a calculated move to diversify partnerships and enhance its leverage within the APEC framework.”
Looking ahead, the short-term (next 6 months) outcome hinges on the successful ratification of the Thailand-ROK FTA by both parliaments, a process that could prove contentious given differing political priorities. The resolution of the tourist entry issue remains critical, requiring a coordinated approach between Bangkok and Seoul to streamline visa procedures and enhance security cooperation. Longer-term (5-10 years), the relationship has the potential to evolve into a truly strategic partnership, facilitated by increased investment, technological collaboration, and potentially, expanded defense cooperation. However, this trajectory depends on sustained political commitment from both sides and the ability to navigate potential geopolitical shifts. The evolving dynamics of the South China Sea dispute and China’s growing assertiveness will undoubtedly play a crucial role. As Professor Chanok Sriphraya, a specialist in Southeast Asian security at Chulalongkorn University, suggests, “Thailand’s strategic repositioning is ultimately about finding a balance between its existing relationships and the emerging strategic imperatives of the Indo-Pacific. The ROK relationship is a key component of that balance, but its long-term sustainability will depend on Thailand’s ability to maintain its strategic autonomy.” The continued success of this partnership will demonstrate whether Thailand can successfully navigate the complexities of the 21st-century geopolitical landscape.