The “5S” Foreign Affairs Masterplan, launched in 2020, prioritized “Security,” “Stability,” “Sustainability,” “Strength,” and “Synergy” as guiding principles for Thailand’s foreign policy. The Week’s focus on digital economy, innovation, and green transition directly reflects this mandate, seeking to leverage China’s economic prowess while mitigating potential risks associated with its growing influence. However, the underlying assumption – that China remains a benign and reliable partner – is increasingly challenged by escalating tensions in the South China Sea, China’s assertive economic statecraft, and the broader erosion of multilateral norms.
Historically, Thailand’s relationship with China has been characterized by a pragmatic alignment, driven largely by economic necessities. The ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement 3.0 (ACFTA 3.0), currently under negotiation with Thailand chairing the process, highlights this mutual dependence. The upgrade, particularly its emphasis on digital and green economic cooperation, represents a calculated move by Thailand to diversify its economic portfolio and reduce its reliance on Western trade partners. Data released by the Thai Ministry of Commerce indicates a 37% increase in bilateral trade volume between 2021 and 2023, with a significant proportion attributed to investments in renewable energy and digital infrastructure, projects largely facilitated through Chinese capital. “The trajectory of Thai-Chinese economic relations is undeniably intertwined with the broader trends of global supply chains and technological dominance,” notes Dr. Anya Sharma, a Senior Fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. “Thailand’s success in capitalizing on this relationship hinges on its ability to manage the inherent vulnerabilities – primarily concerning debt sustainability and potential political leverage – that accompany close economic ties with a major power.”
Recent developments demonstrate a clear power imbalance. China’s “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI), despite criticisms regarding debt traps and environmental impact, continues to reshape regional infrastructure, often bypassing traditional Western financing mechanisms. The ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA), of which Thailand is chair, is intended to promote digital innovation and competitiveness, yet it’s simultaneously predicated on China’s dominance in key digital technologies, particularly in areas like 5G and artificial intelligence. The participation in the panel discussion, “Technological Innovation and AI-Powered Digital Economy,” underscores this dynamic; Deputy Permanent Secretary Maksamphan’s focus on “human-centric and inclusive AI” is a crucial counter-narrative to China’s largely state-directed technological development model. However, the effectiveness of this approach will be tested by China’s ongoing investments in AI and its willingness to share technology – a historically contentious issue within ASEAN.
The meeting with the Secretary-General of the Boao Forum for Asia (BFA) further illuminates Thailand’s strategic calculations. The BFA, a prominent platform for dialogue on regional economic cooperation, provides a crucial space for Thailand to engage with global leaders and shape the narrative around the Asia-Pacific region. This engagement demonstrates a recognition that Thailand’s position within the ASEAN bloc – and its relationship with China – cannot be solely defined by bilateral considerations. “Thailand is attempting to position itself as a bridge between China and the wider ASEAN community, a role that requires a nuanced understanding of the competing strategic interests within the bloc,” explains Professor Kenji Tanaka, an expert on Southeast Asian politics at Kyoto University. “The challenge is to maintain credibility with both Beijing and the more security-conscious member states, such as Singapore and Vietnam.”
Looking ahead, the next 6-12 months will likely see continued intensification of the ACFTA 3.0 negotiations, with Thailand attempting to secure favorable terms that balance its economic aspirations with its security concerns. The ongoing tensions in the South China Sea will undoubtedly remain a critical factor, potentially forcing Thailand to make difficult choices regarding its defense posture and its relationship with key allies like the United States. Over the longer term (5-10 years), Thailand’s success will depend on its ability to diversify its economic partnerships beyond China, strengthen regional alliances, and proactively address the challenges posed by a more fragmented and potentially unstable global order. The ability to navigate this complex landscape – to maintain a pragmatic yet strategically aware approach – is arguably Thailand’s greatest geopolitical test. The question remains: Can Thailand maintain its strategic equilibrium amidst a world increasingly defined by competing power dynamics?