The impetus for these JPoAs stems from several converging factors. Firstly, the 70th anniversary of diplomatic relations between Thailand and New Zealand in 2026 provides a clear focal point for elevating the partnership to a Strategic Partnership level. Secondly, Australia’s existing Strategic Partnership with Thailand, established in 2020 following a period of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, provides a model, while also presenting an opportunity to adapt and refine the collaborative framework. Historically, Thailand’s relationships with both New Zealand and Australia have been anchored in areas of trade and security, reflecting the strategic importance of the Pacific region to both nations. New Zealand, for example, has a longstanding commitment to regional security through its participation in the Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands, while Australia has a persistent interest in maintaining stability in Southeast Asia.
The Australian JPoA, largely built upon the 2020 framework, is expected to continue focusing on defense cooperation, intelligence sharing, and economic ties. Australia’s strategic focus on Indo-Pacific security, coupled with Thailand’s growing military modernization efforts, presents a natural alignment. However, the new NZ JPoA represents a potentially more innovative approach. The draft document prioritizes areas such as sustainable development, climate change adaptation, digital technology, and healthcare – sectors where New Zealand possesses unique expertise and a comparative advantage. This reflects New Zealand’s commitment to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and a desire to leverage its technological prowess in a region facing increasing environmental pressures. “The aim is to build a partnership that’s not just about military cooperation,” stated Dr. Anupong Prasertphol, a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Diplomacy and International Relations, “but one that addresses shared challenges and fosters mutually beneficial growth.”
Data regarding Thailand’s trade with Australia and New Zealand offers a glimpse into the potential scale of the JPoAs. Australia remains Thailand’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade exceeding $18 billion in 2023 – primarily driven by exports of agricultural products, particularly rubber and sugar, and imports of mineral resources. New Zealand’s trade with Thailand, while smaller, has been steadily increasing, largely due to Thailand’s growing demand for New Zealand’s high-value agricultural products, such as meat and dairy, and its burgeoning digital economy. The latest World Bank data indicates Thailand’s reliance on Australia and New Zealand for critical raw materials and technological input, highlighting potential vulnerabilities.
Looking ahead, the success of the JPoAs will be contingent on several factors. Firstly, the political stability within Thailand’s government will be crucial. Frequent changes in leadership could disrupt the momentum of these partnerships. Secondly, the ability of Thailand to effectively translate strategic intentions into tangible outcomes will be tested. Data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) suggests that Thailand’s overall trade diversification efforts have been slow, presenting a potential constraint on the JPoAs’ impact. Thirdly, the broader geopolitical context – particularly the ongoing dynamics within the South China Sea and Thailand’s relationship with China – could exert pressure.
Short-term outcomes (next 6 months) are likely to involve detailed implementation planning, with initial pilot projects focusing on areas like climate change resilience and digital skills development. Long-term (5–10 years), the JPoAs could reshape Thailand’s foreign policy orientation, positioning it as a more active participant in regional security dialogues and fostering closer economic ties with both Australia and New Zealand. However, the challenge will be to avoid over-reliance on these partnerships and to simultaneously pursue a balanced foreign policy that accommodates Thailand’s diverse relationships. Analysis by the Lowy Institute suggests that Thailand’s success hinges on its ability to integrate these partnerships into a broader strategy for regional influence, a task that requires substantial investment in infrastructure, education, and technological innovation. The current draft JPoAs represent a step in that direction, but the ultimate outcome remains uncertain.