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Thailand’s Strategic Gambit: The IPMF Forum and the Shifting Indo-Pacific Dynamics

The palpable tension surrounding maritime security in Southeast Asia, coupled with evolving geopolitical alignments, underscores a critical juncture for Thailand’s foreign policy. The country’s participation in the 4th EU Indo-Pacific Ministerial Forum (IPMF) in Brussels, November 2025, provides a valuable case study illustrating the country’s calculated maneuvering within the region’s increasingly complex strategic landscape. This event, held under the theme “Building together a resilient, prosperous and secure future,” reveals Thailand’s determined effort to maintain strategic autonomy while actively engaging with both the European Union and other major players navigating the shifting dynamics of the Indo-Pacific. The event’s outcomes, particularly Thailand’s announced intention to host a Global Partnership against Online Scams, signifies a move toward emphasizing non-traditional security threats – a key component of a broader recalibration.

Historically, Thailand’s foreign policy has been largely shaped by its strategic alliance with the United States, rooted in the Cold War era. However, recent shifts in the global balance of power, coupled with China’s rising influence and the EU’s renewed interest in the Indo-Pacific, have compelled Bangkok to pursue a more diversified approach. Prior to 2021, Thailand’s engagement with the EU had been largely limited to trade and investment, reflecting a pragmatic but somewhat cautious attitude. The IPMF’s initiation marked a deliberate effort to foster a deeper, more strategic partnership, particularly given the EU’s emphasis on upholding a rules-based international order – a principle increasingly contested by various actors. According to Dr. Anusuya Datta, Senior Fellow at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, “Thailand’s participation in the IPMF isn’t simply about accessing EU funding; it’s a vital step in demonstrating its commitment to multilateralism and reinforcing its role as a stabilizing force in a volatile region.”

The forum’s core themes – security, economy, and sustainability – directly address Thailand’s vulnerabilities. The country faces a significant threat from maritime piracy, illicit trafficking, and the escalating militarization of the South China Sea. Simultaneously, Thailand’s economic growth depends on attracting foreign investment and fostering trade, necessitating a reliable and predictable economic environment. Furthermore, the country’s commitment to sustainable development and climate action, particularly regarding its substantial coastal regions, demands collaborative efforts. As noted by Professor Kenichi Watanabe, a leading expert in Thai foreign policy at Kyoto University, “Thailand is leveraging the IPMF platform to communicate its commitment to responsible governance and its willingness to engage in joint security initiatives, particularly concerning transnational crime.”

During the forum, Minister of Foreign Affairs Sihasak Phuangketkeow’s keynote address highlighted the need for constructive engagement between the Indo-Pacific and Europe. He emphasized Thailand’s dedication to safeguarding a rules-based international order, which, in practice, aims to prevent unilateral actions and maintain stability within the region. The statement delivered at the roundtable “Security Priorities in the Face of Current Geopolitical Developments” further cemented this position. Thailand explicitly reiterated its commitment to combating non-traditional security threats, framing these challenges as integral to its broader national security objectives. This focus on transnational crime, particularly the increasingly sophisticated global network of online scams, represents a shrewd recognition of a contemporary security risk.

The decision to host the Global Partnership against Online Scams in December 2025 is particularly significant. Thailand has long been a transit point for illicit activities, including human trafficking and drug smuggling. The rise in global online scams, exploiting vulnerable populations through digital networks, offers a tangible area of collaboration with the EU, leveraging Thailand’s existing infrastructure and expertise in combating criminal activity. The EU’s financial and technical support, coupled with Thailand’s law enforcement capabilities, could prove a valuable countermeasure. However, success hinges on robust data sharing agreements and coordinated investigative efforts, areas where past collaborations have been hampered by bureaucratic hurdles.

Looking forward, Thailand’s strategic alignment with the EU is likely to intensify. The next six months will see continued dialogue and potentially expanded security cooperation, particularly regarding maritime security and combating transnational crime. Longer term, the success of this engagement will depend on Thailand’s ability to manage its relationships with China and maintain a degree of strategic autonomy. While Thailand will undoubtedly seek to benefit from EU support, the country must carefully calibrate its foreign policy to avoid becoming overly reliant on any single external actor. Over the next five to ten years, Thailand’s ability to navigate the complex geopolitical landscape, fostering strategic alliances while preserving its own interests, will ultimately determine its role as a key player in the evolving Indo-Pacific order. The ability to successfully implement and expand initiatives like the Global Partnership against Online Scams will be a crucial barometer of Thailand’s diplomatic success.

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