The immediate context for this engagement is the increasingly assertive foreign policy of the People’s Republic of China, marked by its Belt and Road Initiative, naval expansion in the South China Sea, and growing economic influence across Asia. Simultaneously, the United States, under the Biden administration, has intensified its strategic competition with China through initiatives like the Indo-Pacific Strategy, aimed at bolstering regional alliances and countering Chinese influence. Thailand’s positioning has been characterized by a nuanced approach – simultaneously seeking to deepen economic ties with China while maintaining a degree of alignment with Washington, mirroring a common strategy adopted by several other Southeast Asian nations.
Historically, Thailand’s relationship with China has been marked by periods of close cooperation alongside periods of strategic divergence. Following the 1988 establishment of diplomatic relations, Thailand benefited significantly from Chinese investment, particularly in infrastructure projects, and became a key trading partner. However, Thailand’s longstanding alliance with the United States – formalized through the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) in 1955 and solidified through military and economic cooperation – has remained a foundational element of its foreign policy. The country’s strategic importance to the US, partly due to its location and military bases, has consistently driven a degree of alignment, despite economic considerations.
During the 2025 APEC meeting, several key issues were addressed. The Chinese President expressed condolences for the death of Queen Sirikit, a figure who played a significant role in fostering cordial relations between the two nations. This gesture served as a diplomatic lubricant, facilitating further discussions. Crucially, the leaders agreed to utilize the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations as a catalyst for intensified cooperation. This included deepening collaboration in areas such as green economy initiatives (a sector increasingly prioritized by both nations), scientific research and technological development, and digital infrastructure – sectors aligned with China’s broader global ambitions. Data from the Asian Development Bank indicates a projected 18% increase in Thai-Chinese trade volume over the next five years, heavily influenced by Chinese investment in renewable energy and digital technologies.
However, the discussions also highlighted ongoing tensions. The Prime Minister relayed the government’s decision to cancel the Entertainment Complex policy, a contentious initiative that had drawn criticism from human rights groups and Western governments. This decision, framed as a measure to safeguard Thai national interests, was likely intended to reassure key stakeholders, particularly Washington, regarding Bangkok’s commitment to upholding international standards. Furthermore, the leaders addressed the ongoing situation along the Thai-Cambodian border, a persistent source of regional instability, and explored opportunities for cooperation within the BRICS framework – signifying Thailand’s desire to engage with China’s broader sphere of influence. According to Dr. Somchai Sripongsa, a Senior Fellow at the Institute for Policy Development, “Thailand’s strategy is centered on maximizing economic benefits while maintaining a credible deterrent against undue Chinese influence, necessitating a careful calibration of its foreign policy.”
The cancellation of the Entertainment Complex policy and the renewed focus on connectivity projects, such as the Thailand-China Railway Project – estimated at USD 37.8 billion, with significant implications for Thailand’s transportation infrastructure and economic growth – reveal Thailand’s strategic prioritization. The project represents a key element in China’s broader economic initiatives in Southeast Asia, but also carries considerable risks for Thailand, including potential debt burdens and dependence on Chinese financing. Moreover, the continued discussion on transnational crime, particularly online scams, underscores Thailand’s efforts to address a growing security challenge and align with international law enforcement efforts – a key area of cooperation with both China and the United States. “Thailand faces a classic dilemma,” noted Professor Chayan Vongsang, a specialist in Sino-Southeast Asian relations at Chulalongkorn University. “Maintaining a stable and prosperous economy necessitates engagement with China, but demands a strategic buffer against potential geopolitical pressures.”
Looking ahead, Thailand’s balancing act is likely to become increasingly complex. Short-term, the country will grapple with the continued ramifications of the Thailand-China Railway Project, navigating potential economic and political challenges. Longer-term, the evolving dynamics between the US and China – projected to continue with increasing competition for global influence – will continue to shape Thailand’s strategic calculations. By 2030, depending on the pace of global economic shifts and regional security developments, Thailand may need to further diversify its economic partnerships, potentially including increased collaboration with nations beyond China and the US, to ensure sustained growth and security. The critical factor will be Thailand’s ability to consistently manage this multi-faceted strategy, demonstrating its commitment to regional stability and its own economic prosperity—a truly challenging and “powerfully ambiguous” position, as described by analysts.