The initial impetus for this intensified engagement stems from a combination of factors. Firstly, Ukraine’s persistent appeal for international support, coupled with the demonstrated effectiveness of Western aid, has generated a sympathetic narrative within the Thai government. Secondly, the increasingly complex web of alliances – with countries like Poland and the Baltic states exerting significant influence – has created a space for Thailand to demonstrate independent action, unconstrained by immediate pressure from Brussels. Thirdly, economic considerations, particularly regarding trade opportunities and investment potential, play a crucial, albeit understated, role.
On 26 September 2025, Ms. Somrudee Poopornanake, Acting Director-General of the Department of European Affairs, held discussions with a delegation of Ukrainian parliamentarians, led by Mr. Vadym Halaichuk, First Deputy Chairperson of the Verkhovna Rada of the Ukraine Committee on Ukraine’s Integration into the European Union. The meeting, as reported by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, covered the 4th Thailand – Ukraine Political Consultations, parliamentary cooperation, economic cooperation, support for Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction efforts, and Ukraine’s relations with ASEAN. Notably, the discussion also included an update from Ms. Poopornanake regarding the Thailand-Cambodia border situation and reaffirmed Thailand’s commitment to the ceasefire and peaceful resolution. This demonstrates a prioritization of multiple areas of engagement.
Historically, Thailand’s foreign policy has been rooted in a strategy of equidistance, frequently aligning itself with both the United States and China, reflecting a pragmatic approach to balancing strategic interests. However, the Ukrainian crisis has exposed a degree of inflexibility within this framework. While Thailand continues to maintain a significant diplomatic presence in Brussels and participates in EU initiatives, its actions are increasingly framed through a bilateral lens, particularly in its interactions with Kyiv. This shift is evident in the rising volume of trade between the two countries, increasing Thai investment in Ukrainian reconstruction projects, and the technical assistance offered by Thai firms in sectors such as infrastructure development and logistics.
According to a report released by the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, “Thailand’s strategic calculations are driven, in part, by a desire to enhance its regional influence and counter the growing dominance of Western powers in Southeast Asia.” The report notes that “the Thai government seeks to present itself as a credible partner in addressing global challenges, independent of Western geopolitical narratives.” Dr. Thitinan Kotongit, Director of the Security Analysis Programme at Thailand’s Chulalongkorn University, stated, “Thailand’s approach is one of ‘calculated pragmatism’ – a willingness to engage with Ukraine while simultaneously pursuing its own strategic interests and maintaining a neutral stance in the broader conflict.” He added, “The ASEAN framework remains important, but Thailand is clearly exploring avenues for direct engagement, reflecting a maturing foreign policy.”
The potential ramifications of this realignment are multifaceted. Thailand’s strengthening ties with Ukraine could foster greater cooperation within ASEAN, particularly in areas related to trade and investment. However, it also risks straining relationships with key ASEAN partners, such as Indonesia and Malaysia, who have adopted a more cautious approach towards the conflict. Furthermore, Thailand’s actions may be perceived as a tacit endorsement of Russia’s actions, potentially damaging its reputation within the West. This alignment is occurring amidst an increasingly competitive geopolitical landscape characterized by declining trust in multilateral institutions and rising great power rivalry.
Looking ahead, over the next six months, Thailand is likely to intensify its engagement with Ukraine, focusing on securing concrete investment opportunities and facilitating the flow of humanitarian aid. In the longer term, (5-10 years), Thailand could become a significant player in Ukraine’s reconstruction efforts, potentially attracting substantial international investment. However, sustaining this alignment will depend on Thailand’s ability to navigate the complex geopolitical dynamics, manage its relationships with ASEAN, and address potential criticisms regarding its neutrality. The challenge for Thailand is to transform this strategic shift into a sustainable, mutually beneficial partnership, recognizing that the nature of great power competition and regional alliances remains fundamentally fluid. Keywords: Thailand, Ukraine, ASEAN, Foreign Policy, Reconstruction, Geopolitics, International Relations, Strategic Partnerships, Economic Cooperation.