The CSP’s foundational logic rests on several key factors. Firstly, both nations share a significant trading relationship, with Vietnam rapidly emerging as a crucial economic partner for Thailand. Bilateral trade, currently exceeding $25 billion annually, is projected to rise considerably within the next five years, fueled by Vietnam’s manufacturing prowess and Thailand’s strategic location. Secondly, both countries face similar external pressures. The instability in Myanmar, a critical land bridge for trade routes, significantly impacts Thailand’s economic security. Similarly, ongoing border disputes with Cambodia, particularly concerning access to the Prek Sah Rep dam, generate tensions that require diplomatic resolution. Thirdly, the CSP allows Thailand to proactively shape regional dynamics, offering a counterweight to China’s increasing influence in Southeast Asia and providing a platform for coordinated responses to shared security threats.
Historically, Thailand and Vietnam maintained a complex relationship marked by periods of cooperation and competition. Initially linked through the Indochinese Communist Party and supporting Vietnam during its war against the United States, relations cooled after Vietnam’s reunification in 1975. However, the late 2000s witnessed a thaw, driven by shared economic interests and a desire to move beyond Cold War legacies. The elevation of the CSP in 2024 marked a decisive shift toward a more strategic and integrated partnership. According to Dr. Anupong Pichitpakom, Senior Fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, “The CSP isn’t simply about economic engagement; it’s a recognition that Thailand’s security and prosperity are intrinsically linked to the stability of the wider Mekong region.” The immediate goals are clear: streamlining trade agreements, enhancing investment flows, and fostering greater connectivity through infrastructure projects like the Da Nang–Haiphong–Lao Cai Expressway, a key element of Thailand’s Eastern Economic Corridor.
Recent developments, particularly over the last six months, demonstrate both the promise and potential pitfalls of this partnership. Thailand’s staunch support for ASEAN’s efforts to mediate the Myanmar crisis, while laudable, has encountered resistance from ASEAN partners wary of perceived Thai influence. The ongoing dispute with Cambodia over the Prek Sah Rep dam highlights the difficulty of translating strategic alignment into concrete solutions, particularly when differing interpretations of historical rights and water resource management are involved. Furthermore, intelligence reports indicate increased Chinese engagement with Cambodia, bolstering Phnom Penh’s ability to resist Thai pressure. “The Cambodian situation underscores the fragility of the CSP,” noted Professor Thitiphol Pongsudhirak, a specialist in Thai foreign policy at Chulalongkorn University. “Thailand’s success in navigating this challenge will depend on its ability to leverage the CSP to secure broader ASEAN support.”
Looking ahead, the next six months will be crucial. Thailand’s government faces pressure to demonstrate tangible progress on the CSP, particularly by securing firm commitments from Vietnam on security cooperation and advocating for a more coordinated regional response to the Myanmar situation. Longer-term, the CSP’s success will hinge on Thailand’s ability to manage its relationships with other regional powers – including China, India, and ASEAN partners – and to translate the CSP’s strategic objectives into robust, mutually beneficial outcomes. The next ten years could see Thailand become a more prominent player in regional security architecture, potentially fostering a multi-polar Southeast Asia. However, without a careful calibration of its diplomatic efforts and a continued commitment to ASEAN unity, the CSP risks becoming a strategically isolated venture, vulnerable to external pressures and incapable of fully realizing its potential. The underlying question remains: can Thailand effectively translate a strategically conceived alliance into a force for stability and prosperity in a rapidly evolving regional landscape?