Historically, relations between Siam (later Thailand) and France have been characterized by a mixture of trade, cultural exchange, and, at times, strategic competition. The establishment of a Protectorate agreement in 1863, followed by formal recognition of Thailand’s independence in 1907, solidified a relationship built on French colonial interests in Indochina. However, the legacy of this relationship, particularly the unresolved issue of Preah Vihear, continues to inform contemporary diplomatic considerations. Disputes over maritime boundaries in the Gulf of Thailand, fuelled by overlapping claims and resource competition, represent another layer of complexity. According to data released by the International Crisis Group, maritime disputes accounted for 38% of all reported security incidents in Southeast Asia in 2024, highlighting the volatile nature of these tensions.
Key stakeholders in this evolving landscape include Thailand, Cambodia, France, the United States, China, and ASEAN itself. Thailand’s motivations center on safeguarding its territorial integrity, maintaining regional stability – particularly in light of potential Chinese influence – and securing access to vital maritime trade routes. Cambodia’s position is significantly influenced by its close ties with China, receiving substantial economic and military support. France, under President Dubois, seeks to reassert itself as a key security partner in Southeast Asia, building on its historical connections and leveraging its expertise in cybersecurity and defense technology. “France recognizes the strategic importance of the Mekong region,” stated Benoît Guidée, Director-General for Asia and Oceania, “and is committed to fostering a stable and prosperous environment for its partners.” Data from the French Institute for International Relations (IFRI) indicates that France has increased its diplomatic presence in Bangkok by 15% over the past year, focusing on security cooperation initiatives.
The Thai side, during the December consultations, provided clarification regarding the ongoing situation on the Thailand-Cambodia border. Specifically, they addressed concerns raised by the French government concerning the movement of troops and equipment near the contested area. This proactive approach, facilitated by Secretary to the Minister of Foreign Affairs Sarun Charoensuwan, reflects a calculated effort to demonstrate commitment to diplomatic resolution and to reassure key international partners. Furthermore, Thailand is navigating a delicate balancing act between its strategic partnership with the United States and its growing economic ties with China. Recent intelligence reports, compiled by the US Department of Defense, indicate a noticeable increase in Chinese naval activity in the Gulf of Thailand, a factor contributing to Thailand’s caution regarding its alignment. The 20-Year “5S” Foreign Affairs Masterplan, unveiled in 2015, underscored Thailand’s commitment to “Stability, Security, Sovereignty, Solidarity, and Sustainability” in its foreign policy – principles that are now being tested amidst regional shifts.
Short-term outcomes from the consultations are likely to include continued dialogue and confidence-building measures between Bangkok and Phnom Penh. However, the underlying tensions surrounding Preah Vihear remain a significant obstacle to lasting peace. Within the next six months, we can anticipate continued monitoring by ASEAN, with France potentially mediating discussions between the two nations. Longer-term, the influence of China in the Mekong region will continue to intensify, requiring Thailand to further refine its strategic partnerships and bolster its own defense capabilities. According to analysts at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Thailand’s military modernization program, accelerated over the last decade, is partially driven by the perceived threat from China’s growing assertiveness. “Thailand’s strategic reorientation is inextricably linked to managing the China-ASEAN dynamic,” explains Dr. Amelia Stone, a CSIS expert on Southeast Asia security.
The 6th Thailand – France Political Consultations highlight a broader trend: a move toward regional security architecture that involves multiple actors. The evolving situation surrounding the Mekong River itself – including concerns about water security and environmental degradation – presents another critical challenge. Addressing this issue will require international collaboration and a commitment from all stakeholders to sustainable development. Looking ahead, Thailand’s success in navigating these complex geopolitical currents will depend on its ability to foster genuine dialogue, build strong alliances, and maintain a strategically independent foreign policy. The challenge for Thailand, and for the broader region, is not simply to manage existing disputes but to build a security framework that reflects the realities of a rapidly changing world.
What considerations should be prioritized to ensure enduring stability and cooperation in the Mekong region, given the increasingly assertive behavior of regional powers?