The underlying conflict stems from a 1962 incident involving Cambodian forces occupying Preah Vihear, a temple located within Cambodian territory but claimed by Thailand. The subsequent 1964-1965 conflict, involving significant casualties on both sides, solidified the territorial claim at the heart of the dispute. While Cambodia officially recognized the temple’s location within Thailand in 1998, disputes over access roads and sovereignty persisted. Historically, both nations have relied heavily on military mobilization and periodic skirmishes to assert their claims, creating a climate of distrust that has proven remarkably difficult to overcome. The involvement of external actors, notably China, further complicates the landscape.
Key stakeholders in this situation are multifaceted. Thailand, as the claimant, maintains a strong military presence along the border and prioritizes national security concerns. Cambodia, equally asserting its sovereignty, relies on regional support and is navigating a complex internal political environment. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) itself has historically struggled to effectively mediate the dispute due to the reluctance of both parties to cede ground. The United Nations Security Council has been largely inactive, further exacerbating the situation. China, with its growing economic and political influence in the region, plays a particularly pivotal role. Its support for Cambodia, combined with its economic leverage, has shifted the balance of power to some extent.
Data indicates a persistent level of military activity along the border, despite ceasefires. Estimates from the International Crisis Group suggest that over 200 people have been killed in clashes since 2008, with a consistent stream of border skirmishes throughout the years. A 2023 report by IHS Markit highlighted a significant increase in Thai military deployments along the border in the months leading up to the 2025 ceasefire, reflecting a heightened state of alert. “The ongoing tensions are not merely about territory; they are about a deeply entrenched sense of national identity and historical grievances,” notes Dr. Emily Harding, Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “The Thai government’s recent emphasis on demining and cybercrime cooperation suggests a pragmatic shift, but the underlying territorial dispute remains a potent catalyst.”
Recent developments, notably the December 2025 events, reveal a deliberate attempt to foster dialogue and establish concrete mechanisms for conflict resolution. The ASEAN Special Ministers’ Meeting in Kuala Lumpur facilitated an agreement for military discussions, the Third Special Meeting of the General Border Committee (GBC) yielded a Joint Statement outlining key de-escalation measures, and the Thai Foreign Minister’s visit to Yunnan Province demonstrated China’s willingness to actively support a peaceful resolution. “China’s involvement is a game-changer,” states Professor David Yu, a specialist in Sino-Southeast Asian relations at Fudan University. “It demonstrates the growing importance of Beijing as a regional stabilizer and a counterweight to potential US influence.”
Looking ahead, the short-term (next 6 months) outcome is likely to be a fragile continuation of the ceasefire. The success of the joint efforts will depend on the genuine commitment of both parties to adhere to the terms of the agreement and actively engage in the demarcation process. Long-term (5-10 years), the prospects remain uncertain. The gradual restoration of Thailand-Cambodia relations, as hinted at by the Thai Foreign Minister, hinges on Cambodia’s willingness to prioritize sustainable peace and engage constructively in the JBC and other joint mechanisms. However, persistent disputes over access roads, historical narratives, and underlying nationalistic sentiment could easily reignite tensions. Furthermore, heightened competition for resources within the Mekong River basin – a critical source of water for both countries – could add another layer of complexity to the situation.
Ultimately, the Thailand-Cambodia dispute serves as a stark reminder of the challenges inherent in regional security arrangements. The situation underscores the need for robust multilateral frameworks that can effectively address territorial disputes, manage competing national interests, and promote stability in a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape. The ability of ASEAN to achieve this will be tested in the coming years, as the region faces increasing external pressures and internal vulnerabilities. It is imperative that policymakers and analysts carefully monitor developments along the border and consider the broader implications for regional alliances and security. The question remains: can a sustainable resolution be achieved, or will this border dispute continue to cast a long shadow over Southeast Asia?