The core of the issue centers on disputed territory, primarily the Preah Vihear Temple, and the subsequent expansion of Cambodia’s claims into areas bordering Thailand. While the 2011 International Court of Justice ruling affirmed Cambodian sovereignty over the temple, it did not fully resolve the overlapping territorial claims. This ambiguity has fueled a strategic competition, with Cambodia utilizing its expanded territorial claims to exert pressure on Thailand, and both sides accusing each other of aggressive actions. The specific allegations of landmine deployment, supported by what Thailand describes as “scientific, forensic, and empirical evidence,” significantly damage Thailand’s credibility regarding its commitment to the APMBC, which Cambodia also ratified in 2001. Data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) indicates a concerning trend of increased military activity along the border in the six months leading up to December 2025, including heightened surveillance and troop deployments. A 2025 report by the International Crisis Group indicated that the situation has moved from a low-level strategic competition to a de facto security crisis.
Key stakeholders include the Thai government, the Cambodian government (under Prime Minister Hun Manet), the United Nations, particularly the UNODA office, and various regional actors, including China. Cambodia, influenced by China’s assertive foreign policy, perceives Thailand’s concerns as a projection of Western influence and a challenge to its regional standing. Thailand, in turn, views the situation as a direct threat to its territorial integrity and national security, demanding full compliance with the APMBC and increased pressure on Cambodia. According to a December 2025 briefing by the Thai Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the situation has significant implications for Thailand’s ability to secure investment and maintain trade relations.
The allegations of landmine deployment present a particularly damaging challenge. The APMBC, designed to eliminate the humanitarian consequences of landmines, is predicated on the assumption of state compliance. If a state, such as Cambodia, is demonstrably violating the treaty, it undermines the entire framework and casts doubt on the effectiveness of international disarmament efforts. Furthermore, the issue has complicated Thailand’s access to international funding and support for humanitarian initiatives in border regions. “The credibility of the Ottawa Convention is at stake,” stated UNODA Chief Régimbal in a subsequent statement following the meeting with Phuangketkeow. “A failure to address these violations would send a dangerous signal to other States Parties.”
Short-term outcomes over the next six months are likely to remain characterized by continued tension and sporadic clashes. Further negotiations, potentially mediated by ASEAN or the UN, will be crucial to de-escalate the situation and establish a clear framework for resolving the territorial dispute. However, achieving a lasting resolution will require a fundamental shift in Cambodia’s approach, coupled with sustained pressure from Thailand and the international community. Long-term, the situation could have significant ramifications for regional security architecture. The continued failure to address the landmine issue and the broader territorial dispute could embolden other states to challenge existing borders or disregard international treaties, fostering instability across Southeast Asia. A 2026 report by the Council on Foreign Relations suggested that a protracted conflict could draw in regional powers, further destabilizing the region.
Ultimately, the Thailand-Cambodia border crisis represents a potent reminder of the enduring challenges of implementing international treaties in complex geopolitical environments. It underscores the critical importance of upholding state sovereignty while simultaneously reinforcing the obligations of States Parties to arms control agreements. The situation demands a delicate balance, prioritizing both the legitimate security concerns of Thailand and the collective effort to eliminate the devastating humanitarian consequences of landmines. The call to action is for a renewed commitment to multilateralism and a proactive approach to addressing the root causes of conflict and instability – a call that requires thoughtful consideration of historical precedents, current geopolitical dynamics, and the fundamental principles of international law.