The ongoing conflict in Sudan presents a profoundly complex humanitarian crisis, increasingly recognized as the world’s largest. As of late 2025, estimates from the United Nations indicate over 25 million people – nearly 40% of the country’s population – require humanitarian assistance, a figure dramatically exacerbated by the collapse of state authority and the intensified fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). This situation demands a critical analysis of the immediate humanitarian response, the geopolitical context, and the long-term implications for regional stability, utilizing keywords such as “humanitarian aid,” “Sudan conflict,” “RSF,” “SAF,” “regional instability,” and “geopolitical implications.”
The crisis originated in April 2023, following a mutiny by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as RSB, who subsequently formed the RSF. The ensuing power struggle rapidly devolved into widespread violence, displacing millions and disrupting essential services. Prior to the conflict, Sudan had been a key strategic location within the Horn of Africa, serving as a transit route for migrants and a battleground for various regional and international actors. The collapse of state structures, compounded by longstanding ethnic tensions—particularly in Darfur—has created a volatile environment, further complicated by the presence of foreign mercenaries and the potential for spillover effects into neighboring countries, notably Chad, South Sudan, and Egypt. Data released by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) in November 2025 highlighted a record 3.4 million internal displacements within Sudan, a staggering increase from pre-conflict levels.
The Humanitarian Landscape: A Race Against Time
The immediate humanitarian response is characterized by immense logistical challenges. Access to affected areas remains severely restricted, with reports of deliberate obstruction by both the SAF and RSF. According to a November 2025 report from the World Food Programme (WFP), only approximately 10% of the population in conflict zones receives adequate food assistance. The distribution of food, primarily through WFP operations, concentrates on Darfur, Kordofan, and Blue Nile states – regions most acutely impacted by famine and displacement. Further complicating matters, the disruption of healthcare infrastructure has led to a dramatic rise in preventable diseases, particularly among children. Reports indicate a significant increase in measles cases, linked to weakened vaccination programs and overcrowded displacement camps. The UN estimates that over 17 million people require access to mental health services, a consequence of the widespread trauma and displacement.
Key Stakeholders and Motivations
Several key stakeholders are involved, each driven by distinct motivations. The SAF, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, seeks to maintain control over Sudan’s vast resources and strategic location. The RSF, commanded by RSB, aims to consolidate its power and potentially establish a lasting independent state. Regional powers, including Egypt, which has deployed forces to secure the Suez Canal, and Chad, providing support to the SAF, are primarily concerned with preserving regional stability and protecting their own national security interests. The United States and European Union, while providing significant humanitarian assistance, have been largely hampered by the inability to achieve a negotiated ceasefire or secure unhindered access for aid workers. According to a recent analysis by the Chatham House in November 2025, the lack of diplomatic progress is largely attributable to the deeply entrenched positions of the warring factions and the absence of a credible international mediator.
Short-Term and Long-Term Implications
In the short term (next 6 months), the humanitarian situation is expected to deteriorate further. Continued fighting will likely displace an additional 3–5 million people, overwhelming already strained humanitarian capacity. A protracted conflict risks triggering a large-scale famine, potentially exceeding the scale of the 2011 Darfur crisis. In the long term (5–10 years), the consequences of the Sudan conflict are potentially far-reaching. The ongoing instability could exacerbate existing regional tensions, fueling further conflicts and undermining efforts to combat terrorism and transnational crime. The potential for a protracted civil war could also lead to a protracted humanitarian crisis, creating a protracted displacement crisis and posing a significant burden on neighboring countries. Furthermore, the crisis represents a critical test for the international community’s ability to respond effectively to complex, protracted conflicts. As noted by a report from the International Crisis Group, “The failure to address the root causes of the conflict – namely, the lack of political inclusion, the unequal distribution of wealth, and the unresolved grievances of marginalized communities – will almost certainly lead to a prolonged period of instability and suffering.”
The situation in Sudan underscores the urgent need for a comprehensive and sustained international effort. This includes not only providing humanitarian aid but also supporting political dialogue, promoting accountability for human rights violations, and addressing the underlying factors that have fueled the conflict. Ultimately, achieving a lasting solution will require a genuine commitment from all parties to the negotiations and a broader international effort to promote peace and stability in the Horn of Africa.