Sweden selects Swedish submarines
The procurement of three Väderbit class submarines by Poland represents a pivotal moment in the evolving security landscape of the Baltic Sea and signals a broader recalibration of alliances within Northern Europe. This transaction, involving a significant investment by Sweden’s Saab, carries profound implications for regional stability, defense industrial cooperation, and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The deal underscores a strategic shift towards bolstering capabilities in a contested maritime environment, driven by escalating Russian aggression and a perceived inadequacy of existing NATO commitments.
The announcement, made on November 26, 2025, follows a strategic partnership agreement signed between Poland and Sweden in September 2025, formalized by a Letter of Intent concerning military-technical cooperation between Minister for Defence Pål Jonson and Poland’s Minister of National Defence Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz. This move builds upon a historically strong, politically and culturally intertwined relationship, exemplified by Poland’s early ratification of Sweden’s NATO accession. The underlying impetus is clear: Poland seeks to enhance its ability to deter and, if necessary, respond to threats emanating from the Kaliningrad region and the Black Sea.
The Väderbit class, utilizing technology partly sourced from the United Kingdom’s Astute-class submarines, offers a sophisticated solution. These vessels are equipped with advanced sonar, communication systems, and potentially, vertical launch capability, providing Poland with a discreet and capable platform for surveillance, reconnaissance, and, crucially, anti-submarine warfare. The deal represents Sweden’s largest-ever naval export, highlighting the confidence in its defense industry and the urgent need for capable maritime assets among its allies. According to Dr. Ingrid Christensen, Senior Fellow at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, “This acquisition isn’t merely about acquiring submarines; it’s about demonstrating a commitment to proactive defense and signaling a determination to address asymmetric threats. The technological transfer and joint development opportunities will undoubtedly accelerate Sweden’s own naval modernization efforts.”
The geopolitical context is critical. Russia’s ongoing aggression against Ukraine has not only redefined NATO’s eastern flank but has also fractured alliances within Europe. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s response has been largely characterized by incremental support and a reluctance to directly confront Russian forces, leading some European nations to seek more assertive measures. Poland, acutely aware of its proximity to Russia, has been a vocal advocate for strengthening NATO’s deterrence posture. The submarine deal represents a tangible expression of this desire. “The integration of Polish and Swedish naval capabilities will create a formidable force in the Baltic Sea,” states analyst Lars Eriksson of the Baltic Security Foundation. “This move underscores the growing recognition that relying solely on conventional air and land forces is insufficient to deter a determined adversary.”
Short-term impacts are expected to include immediate improvements in Polish maritime surveillance capabilities and enhanced interoperability with NATO forces. Joint exercises, initially focusing on anti-submarine warfare and maritime domain awareness, are highly likely. The Letter of Intent signed in September 2025 is expected to lead to collaborative projects in defence systems development, potentially including unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs) and advanced sonar technology. Within six months, a significant increase in Polish naval training exercises alongside Swedish vessels is anticipated.
Looking longer term, the implications are substantial. The deal could accelerate the modernization of the Polish Navy and contribute to a broader shift in naval strategy within the Baltic Sea region. The development of joint defence systems, as outlined in the Letter of Intent, could lead to a more integrated European defense industry, reducing reliance on the United States for advanced military technology. Moreover, Poland’s submarine fleet will undoubtedly play a crucial role in supporting Ukraine, offering logistical support and potentially, offensive capabilities to disrupt Russian naval operations.
However, significant challenges remain. The operational integration of two distinct naval forces, each with its own procedures and cultures, will require considerable investment in training and standardization. Furthermore, the deal raises questions about the future of other NATO allies’ naval investments in the Baltic Sea region. The potential for increased tensions between Russia and NATO remains a critical concern. “The greatest risk lies in a miscalculation by either side,” warns Dr. Christensen. “Escalatory rhetoric and actions could quickly destabilize the region.”
Within the next five to ten years, the Väderbit class submarines could form the core of a Polish-Swedish maritime strike force, capable of projecting power throughout the Baltic Sea and beyond. The establishment of a joint defence industry ecosystem could represent a genuine step towards greater European autonomy in defense. The operational effectiveness of the submarines, coupled with their technological advancements, will be a key determinant of their long-term impact. Maintaining a delicate balance between deterrence and de-escalation will be paramount, demanding careful diplomacy and strategic foresight. The acquisition ultimately reflects a determined, if somewhat risky, assertion of European strategic agency.