The persistent rumble of artillery practice near the shores of Lake Ladoga, coupled with increasingly frequent naval exercises along the Baltic’s maritime borders, paints a picture of escalating strategic positioning. This heightened activity, particularly the coordinated military exchanges between Sweden and Finland, demands a critical assessment of its roots and potential implications for European security architecture – a situation undeniably exacerbated by Russia’s ongoing actions in Ukraine. The stability of NATO’s eastern flank, the future of transatlantic alliances, and the broader balance of power within the Arctic region are all inextricably linked to developments unfolding in this strategically vital corner of Europe.
The underlying impetus for this intensified Nordic cooperation stems from a confluence of factors. Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Sweden and Finland faced a stark re-evaluation of their long-held neutrality policies. While both nations initially maintained a stance of non-alignment, the demonstrable threat posed by Russian military aggression, specifically the annexation of Crimea and the subsequent destabilization of border regions, led to unanimous decisions to apply for NATO membership. This process, however, has been protracted, influenced by Turkey’s objections – largely stemming from disagreements over Ankara’s counterterrorism cooperation – and by internal political considerations within NATO member states. Simultaneously, Russia has reacted to this shift in Nordic security postures with a significant increase in military activity along the border, including bolstering defensive capabilities and conducting provocative exercises.
The Hanating 2025 security and defence policy forum, where Swedish Defence Minister Pål Jonson will participate alongside his Finnish counterpart Antti Häkkänen, represents a key moment in this evolving landscape. The forum’s focus – “Hybrid threats in the Baltic Sea region and the role of the defence industry in a volatile security landscape” – directly addresses the core concerns driving the intensified military cooperation. The planned visit to the Björneborg brigade, a significant Finnish military unit tasked with deterring potential Russian incursions, underscores the proactive nature of this engagement. Notably, this visit follows several months of increasingly visible joint exercises between Swedish and Finnish forces, including large-scale maritime drills involving naval vessels and air support.
Data from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) indicates a 78% increase in Russian military exercises conducted within a 100-mile radius of the Baltic Sea coastline since 2022. This intensification mirrors, and arguably anticipates, the expanding NATO presence in the region. “Russia is demonstrating a clear intent to shape the strategic environment and put pressure on NATO allies,” argues Dr. Lina Karlsson, a leading expert on Russian military affairs at the Swedish Defence University. “The increased military activity is not simply a response to NATO’s enhanced presence; it’s a calculated move to maintain influence and disrupt the alliance’s ability to operate effectively.”
The focus on hybrid threats – encompassing cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and economic coercion – is particularly pertinent. Intelligence reports suggest that Russia has been actively attempting to sow discord within NATO member states through sophisticated online operations, exploiting existing societal divisions and amplifying anti-NATO sentiment. The planned discussions at Hanating 2025 will undoubtedly prioritize strategies for bolstering resilience against these evolving threats.
Recent developments in the region further complicate the situation. In July 2025, a report by the European Security & Defence Research Centre (ESDRC) highlighted a surge in maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland, suspected to be linked to increased Russian naval presence. While official explanations attribute this to legitimate commercial shipping activities, the increased surveillance and potential for covert operations remain a significant concern. Moreover, the ongoing procurement of new combat vessels and rocket artillery by Finland, particularly through the collaboration with Rauma Marine Constructions, signals a sustained commitment to bolstering the nation’s defensive capabilities.
Looking ahead, the next six months will likely see continued intensification of military exercises and increased surveillance activities within the Baltic Sea region. The resolution of Turkey’s objections to Finnish NATO membership – currently a key obstacle – remains crucial for the alliance’s eastern flank. Longer term, the strategic implications extend beyond the immediate Baltic Sea region. The enhanced cooperation between Sweden and Finland, coupled with the ongoing expansion of NATO’s presence in the Arctic – a region increasingly viewed as a strategic frontier – will profoundly impact the balance of power in Europe and potentially influence future geopolitical dynamics. “The situation is fundamentally about deterrence,” states Professor Mikael Franzén, a specialist in Nordic security policy at Uppsala University. “Sweden and Finland are demonstrating a clear willingness to stand firm against Russian aggression, and that sends a powerful message to Moscow and to the wider world.” The sustained commitment to bolstering national defence capabilities, alongside continued efforts to strengthen transatlantic alliances, represents a crucial, though undeniably challenging, pathway toward safeguarding European security.