The Sahel, a vast swathe of land stretching across Africa south of the Sahara, is rapidly transitioning from a regional security challenge to a global geopolitical concern. Recent data from the International Crisis Group indicates that over 37 million people – nearly one-third of the population – are facing acute food insecurity, driven by a confluence of factors including prolonged drought, extremist violence, and governmental instability. This escalating crisis, fueled by a complex interplay of local grievances and external influences, demands a proactive and nuanced response from international actors, otherwise the risk of destabilization will dramatically accelerate.
The current situation represents a significant escalation of a trend that began over a decade ago, marked by the rise of groups like al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and increasingly, the Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP). Initial interventions focused primarily on counterterrorism, yet failed to adequately address the underlying drivers of conflict: poverty, weak governance, ethnic tensions, and resource scarcity. The protracted conflict has created a power vacuum exploited by various actors, dramatically increasing humanitarian need and destabilizing already fragile states. The recent influx of foreign fighters, primarily from Russia’s Wagner Group, seeking to capitalize on the chaos further complicates the situation, representing a potential vector for escalation within the wider African theatre.
Historical Context: The roots of instability in the Sahel stretch back centuries, intertwined with colonial legacies, the legacy of Cold War-era proxy conflicts, and the subsequent collapse of state structures following independence. The French colonial project, specifically the control of uranium deposits and the imposition of a centralized authority, created deep-seated resentment among various ethnic groups, a resentment that continues to resonate today. Following independence, the Soviet Union and later the United States supported different factions, bolstering regional divisions. The 1990s saw a surge in ethnic violence, fueled by competition over land and resources. The early 2000s witnessed the rise of Islamist extremist groups, exploiting existing grievances and capitalizing on the porous borders and weak security apparatus. The 2012 uprising in Mali, triggered by resentment towards the government and the presence of Tuareg separatists, ultimately led to a French-led intervention and a period of instability.
Key Stakeholders and Motivations: Several key actors are involved, each with distinct motivations. France, historically dominant in the region, continues to exert significant influence through military cooperation and economic ties, though its strategy is increasingly viewed as paternalistic and ineffective. The United States, grappling with shifting priorities in the Middle East, maintains a smaller but growing security presence, primarily focused on counterterrorism operations and training local forces. Russia’s Wagner Group, operating largely outside formal government agreements, provides security services and undertakes mining operations, bolstering its geopolitical influence and extracting valuable resources. Regional powers, including Saudi Arabia and the United Emirates, provide financial and logistical support to governments and security forces, often with strategic aims related to regional security and counter-terrorism. Finally, the governments of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, struggling with governance, economic woes, and the escalating security threats, are actively seeking external support, resulting in a complex and often contradictory landscape.
Recent Developments (Past Six Months): Over the past six months, the situation has dramatically deteriorated. The collapse of the Malian government in the face of widespread protests, followed by the coup d’état in August 2021, opened the door for the Wagner Group to assert a more dominant role. The group’s presence has escalated violence, particularly in the north, and has led to accusations of human rights abuses. Simultaneously, Burkina Faso and Niger experienced military coups in 2022 and 2023, respectively, further exacerbating instability. These coups have led to a reduction in international support and increased concerns about the potential for the Wagner Group to establish a permanent foothold in the region. Recent reports indicate Wagner’s establishment of a significant base of operations near the town of Kidal in Mali, strengthening their control over key resource areas.
Future Impact and Insight: Short-term (next 6 months), we anticipate a continued escalation of violence as the Wagner Group expands its operational reach and the competing factions within the Sahel region intensify their struggles for power. Humanitarian needs will continue to rise dramatically, placing an enormous strain on already overstretched aid organizations. Long-term (5–10 years), the potential for a prolonged state of ungoverned space is extremely high. Without a fundamental shift in approach – one that prioritizes genuine state-building efforts, addresses root causes of instability, and fosters inclusive governance – the Sahel risks becoming a failed region with significant implications for Europe, the United States, and the broader African continent. A potential scenario involves the spread of extremist ideologies, further state fragmentation, increased migration flows, and the emergence of new transnational security threats. The recruitment of more individuals into extremist groups, including returning foreign fighters, presents a particularly dangerous trajectory.
Call to Reflection: The unfolding crisis in the Sahel demands a recognition that this is not merely a regional problem but a global one. The increasing vulnerability of the region to external actors, particularly Russia’s deepening involvement, is a crucial test of international norms and institutions. It is imperative that policymakers engage in a serious and sustained dialogue about a long-term strategy that transcends short-term tactical considerations and recognizes the profound complexity of the situation. The question remains: Can the international community forge a united front, or will the Sahel become another casualty of geopolitical maneuvering?