The escalating instability in the Horn of Africa, particularly the protracted conflict in Sudan and its ripple effects across Ethiopia and Somalia, represents a potentially catastrophic reset for regional security architecture. Recent reports indicate a significant increase in Wagner Group activity in Sudan, alongside heightened tensions between Ethiopian forces and breakaway militias, while Somalia grapples with a resurgent al-Shabaab and irregular flows of displaced populations. This confluence of crises, amplified by external involvement, demands immediate, nuanced analysis and underscores the urgent need for a comprehensive strategic response. The situation is profoundly destabilizing, threatening to unravel decades of fragile progress and reignite a cycle of violence that could engulf the entire continent.
The current predicament is deeply rooted in historical dynamics. The collapse of the Ottoman Empire and subsequent colonial legacies created power vacuums, fostering tribalism and weak state structures. The Cold War fueled proxy conflicts, most notably the devastating Ethiopian-Somali War of the 1970s, which left Somalia in a state of prolonged state failure. More recently, the geopolitical competition between China, the United States, and Russia has injected new complexities into the region, with each power seeking to expand its influence through economic investment and military cooperation – often with limited success and unintended consequences. “The Horn of Africa has always been a geopolitical chessboard,” notes Dr. Alistair Campbell, Senior Fellow at the International Crisis Group. “But the level of external involvement we’re seeing now is unprecedented, creating multiple fault lines and exacerbating existing tensions.”
The Conflict in Sudan is a pivotal component of this crisis. The civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has not only caused immense human suffering – an estimated 24.8 million people, over 60 percent of the population, require humanitarian assistance– but has also destabilized neighboring countries. The influx of displaced people, particularly from South Darfur and Blue Nile, is straining resources and exacerbating security concerns in Chad, Ethiopia, and Kenya. Furthermore, the presence of Wagner Group mercenaries, allegedly supporting the RSF, raises serious concerns about human rights abuses and the potential for prolonged conflict. “The Wagner Group’s involvement acts as a magnet for radicalized elements and further entrenches a culture of impunity,” argues Ahmed Abdi, a security analyst specializing in the region based at the Sana Strategic Studies Institute. “It’s creating a security environment that is incredibly difficult to manage.”
Ethiopia’s internal conflicts are inextricably linked. The ongoing tensions between the Ethiopian government and various breakaway regional militias, particularly those aligned with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), are fueled by unresolved grievances over federal power-sharing and resource control. The situation is further complicated by the recent deployment of the Ethiopian military to support the SAF in Sudan, a move that has angered Khartoum and heightened tensions. The government’s actions are also increasingly viewed as a symptom of deeper governance issues, including widespread corruption and a lack of accountability.
Somalia’s vulnerability is dramatically increased. Al-Shabaab’s resurgence, bolstered by support from external actors and exploiting the chaos in neighboring countries, poses a direct threat to the Somali government and regional stability. The group’s ability to launch attacks across the border into Kenya and Ethiopia highlights the fragility of the security situation. The recent deployment of international forces, primarily under the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), is struggling to contain the threat and the ATMIS mission’s mandate is nearing its end, raising concerns about a security vacuum. “The withdrawal of ATMIS without a credible plan for a sustainable security transition will have devastating consequences,” warns Dr. Fatima Ali, a Professor of Political Science at the University of Nairobi. “We are looking at a situation where al-Shabaab could regain significant territory and operational capabilities.”
Looking ahead, the next six months will likely see a continuation of the current instability, with a further escalation of violence in Sudan, continued pressure on the Somali government, and a deepening humanitarian crisis. The long-term (5-10 years) outlook is even more concerning. Without concerted international action – including diplomatic pressure, targeted sanctions, and sustained humanitarian assistance – the Horn of Africa could descend into a protracted state of conflict, with profound implications for regional and global security. Key geopolitical shifts are occurring, with China’s expanding economic influence and military footprint raising questions about its long-term role in the region. The United States must prioritize a coordinated, multilateral strategy, working with regional partners to address the root causes of instability and promote a peaceful resolution to the conflicts. A genuine commitment to supporting democratic reforms, fostering inclusive governance, and strengthening regional institutions is essential to preventing a further descent into chaos. Ultimately, the fate of the Horn of Africa – and arguably, parts of the wider continent – hinges on a collective willingness to engage in a meaningful and sustainable way. The imperative remains to foster dialogue, de-escalate tensions, and prevent the region from becoming a breeding ground for extremism and conflict.