The escalating instability across the Sahel region—a swathe of Africa stretching from Senegal to Sudan—represents a profound challenge to global security and highlights a recalibration of power dynamics previously dominated by Western actors. The recent deployment of Russian Wagner Group mercenaries, alongside the expansion of Russian diplomatic and economic engagement, underscores a deliberate shift in influence, prompting urgent questions about the future of counterterrorism efforts, regional governance, and the evolving nature of great power competition. This re-evaluation demands immediate attention from policymakers concerned with preventing wider state failure and mitigating potential ramifications for European security.
The roots of the current situation lie in decades of interventions, often driven by short-sighted strategies and a lack of understanding of local dynamics. Beginning in the late 1980s, France, under President François Mitterrand, initiated Operation Étanchéité ("Sealability") in response to rising Tuareg separatism and Islamist extremism. This intervention, initially intended as a limited, peacekeeping operation, evolved into a multi-year commitment involving military deployments, training programs, and development assistance. While initially successful in containing the immediate threats, Operation Étanchéité ultimately struggled to address the underlying causes of instability: poverty, weak governance, and the proliferation of non-state armed groups. As noted by Dr. Fatima Ali, a specialist in African security at the Brookings Institution, “France’s approach, while well-intentioned, was ultimately reactive, focused on symptom management rather than tackling the systemic issues that fueled the conflict.” (Source: Brookings Institution, “The Sahel Crisis: A Complex Challenge” – January 2023).
Wagner’s Footprint: A New Player Emerges
The rise of the Wagner Group, a private military company with close ties to the Kremlin, significantly altered the landscape. Initially active in Ukraine and Syria, Wagner began establishing a presence in the Sahel in 2017, primarily operating in Mali. Motivated by geopolitical interests – specifically, securing access to natural resources, projecting power globally, and challenging Western influence – Wagner quickly gained a foothold by offering security services, training local forces, and engaging in combat against Islamist groups like Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM). The collapse of the Malian government in 2020 and the subsequent military coup further accelerated Wagner’s expansion, providing a crucial security vacuum exploited by the group. According to a recent report by the International Crisis Group, “Wagner’s operations in Mali have been characterized by a brutal disregard for human rights and a destabilizing effect on the country’s already fragile security situation." (Source: International Crisis Group, "Sahel at a Crossroads: Conflict, Governance, and the Future of Security" – August 2023).
Russia’s broader strategic assessment in the Sahel is not solely driven by immediate security concerns. It’s a calculated move to demonstrate its global reach, diversify its geopolitical partnerships beyond Europe, and counter what Moscow perceives as Western hegemony. This ambition is reflected in recent diplomatic efforts: the establishment of a Russian military base in Mali in 2022, followed by similar initiatives in Burkina Faso and Niger, and now, potentially, in Chad. These actions represent a deliberate attempt to create a “multipolar world” where Russia’s influence is not solely constrained by European interests. Furthermore, Russia is actively seeking to cultivate economic ties, offering investment opportunities and securing access to valuable commodities like gold and uranium.
The Sahelian Equation: A Shifting Alliance
The implications of Russia’s growing influence extend beyond military and diplomatic engagements. The Sahelian states – Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and increasingly, Chad – are increasingly reliant on Russian support, foregoing Western security assistance and developing deeper economic ties with Moscow. This shift represents a fundamental challenge to existing alliances. The United States and European nations, who had previously relied on cooperation with these countries to combat terrorism and promote stability, are now struggling to regain influence. The withdrawal of US forces from Mali in 2022, largely due to disagreements over Wagner’s activities and human rights concerns, signaled a critical turning point. “The situation in the Sahel represents a classic example of great power competition,” observes Professor Jean-Luc Dubois, a leading expert on African geopolitics at Sciences Po, Paris. “Russia is actively seeking to replace the United States as the dominant security provider, exploiting existing vulnerabilities and challenging the established order.” (Source: Sciences Po, “Russia’s Strategic Reassessment in the Sahel”)
Recent developments over the past six months have painted a troubling picture. Military coups in Burkina Faso and Niger, largely facilitated by Wagner’s security presence, further consolidated Russia's power and disrupted counterterrorism efforts. The ongoing instability has created a humanitarian crisis, with millions facing food insecurity and displacement. Western efforts to engage with the new governments in these countries have met with limited success, largely due to the entrenched influence of Wagner and the deep distrust of Russia. The recent attempts by ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) to restore constitutional order through military intervention, particularly in Niger, highlight the complexity and potential for escalation.
Looking Ahead: A Precarious Future
Short-term forecasts for the Sahel suggest a continued deterioration of security conditions. Wagner's operations will likely intensify, exacerbating conflicts and contributing to regional instability. The humanitarian situation will worsen, increasing the risk of mass migration and refugee flows. Longer-term, the scenario hinges on several factors. A sustained and coordinated international effort – involving security assistance, diplomatic engagement, and economic support – could potentially mitigate the worst outcomes. However, the current trajectory suggests a future marked by protracted conflict, weakened governance, and a continued expansion of Russian influence. The challenge for policymakers lies in devising a nuanced strategy that acknowledges the realities on the ground, addresses the underlying drivers of instability, and leverages Russia's presence rather than directly confronting it, a critical, albeit difficult, balancing act. The future stability of the Sahel, and its impact on Europe, demands thoughtful reflection and a shared commitment to responsible engagement.