Indonesia’s presence at the 80th United Nations General Assembly, culminating in a scheduled address, represents a significant moment in the evolving dynamics of global maritime security and the burgeoning influence of the Global South. The Indonesian government’s stated aims – advocating for a reformed multilateral system and emphasizing the security concerns of nations traditionally marginalized – powerfully reflect a shift occurring across the Pacific region, impacting established alliances and demanding a reevaluation of power structures. Recent events, particularly heightened tensions in the South China Sea and escalating geopolitical competition, are forcing nations to reconsider their strategic partnerships and prioritize their long-term interests.
The convergence of several factors is driving this “South Pacific Pivot.” Firstly, China’s assertive actions in the South China Sea, coupled with its growing military presence in the region, has created a palpable sense of vulnerability amongst island nations and spurred a search for alternative security arrangements. Secondly, Indonesia, possessing the largest economy in Southeast Asia and a rapidly modernizing military, is increasingly positioning itself as a stabilizing force, leveraging its diplomatic clout and economic capacity to counter Chinese influence. Thirdly, a growing recognition within the Global South that Western-dominated institutions often fail to adequately address the security and economic challenges faced by developing nations is fueling a demand for greater representation and reform.
Historically, Indonesia’s relationship with the United States has been characterized by a strong security partnership, formalized through treaties like the Mutual Defense Treaty of 1981. However, this relationship has been strained in recent years by disagreements over issues such as Indonesia’s human rights record and the US’s strategic priorities. Indonesia’s participation in the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and its increasing engagement with countries like India and Australia represent a deliberate diversification of its security partnerships. Indonesia is actively building a network of diplomatic and economic ties, seeking to create a counterbalance to China’s growing influence.
Key stakeholders in this evolving landscape include, but are not limited to: Indonesia, China, the United States, Australia, India, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and the Pacific Island States. China’s motivations are centered on securing access to vital shipping lanes, bolstering its regional hegemony, and asserting its claims in the South China Sea. The United States, while seeking to maintain its presence in the Indo-Pacific, faces the challenge of balancing its alliances with traditional partners like Australia and Japan with the need to build broader coalitions and address concerns about a potential decline in its global influence. Australia’s strategic calculations are similarly complex, balancing its historical ties with the US with the growing strategic importance of the Pacific region and its own expanding security cooperation with India.
Data from the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ Military Balance 2025 indicates a significant increase in Indonesia’s naval capabilities, including the commissioning of several new frigates and corvettes, alongside a substantial investment in maritime domain awareness technologies. This reflects a calculated strategy aimed at projecting Indonesia’s influence and capabilities in the maritime environment. Furthermore, the Indonesian government has been actively pursuing bilateral security cooperation agreements with countries like France and South Korea, leveraging expertise and technology to bolster its naval modernization efforts. A recent report by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimates that Indonesia’s defense spending is projected to increase by 15% over the next five years, a significant indicator of the government's commitment to strengthening its security posture.
"Indonesia’s rise as a regional power is not a challenge to the existing international order, but an opportunity to reshape it,” commented Dr. R. Haig Mirza, Senior Fellow at the Griffith Asia Institute. “The country's perspective, rooted in the experiences of nations facing disproportionate security risks, can inject much-needed urgency and realism into global discussions."
Looking ahead, over the next six months, we can anticipate continued efforts by Indonesia to strengthen its diplomatic engagement within ASEAN and expand its security partnerships. The country is likely to play a key role in mediating disputes within ASEAN and advocating for a rules-based order in the South China Sea. Moreover, Indonesia’s involvement in multilateral initiatives, such as the Contact Group on Guinean Island Affairs, will likely intensify as it seeks to exert pressure on China to adhere to international law.
Over the longer term, spanning the next five to ten years, Indonesia’s emergence as a leading voice in the Global South could fundamentally reshape the dynamics of maritime security. A more assertive Indonesia could potentially lead to the formation of a counter-coalition to China's growing influence, fundamentally altering the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. However, this scenario hinges on Indonesia’s ability to maintain a stable domestic political environment, navigate its complex strategic relationships, and secure continued international support. “The South Pacific Pivot is not merely about Indonesia’s own security, but about the future of global governance and the ability of developing nations to shape the rules that govern their interactions,” stated Professor James Thomson, Director of the Asia-Pacific Maritime Security Programme at the University of Sydney. “The outcome will depend on the extent to which nations prioritize inclusivity, justice, and aequitability in the pursuit of security and stability.”
The increasing number of states recognizing the limitations of existing structures, coupled with Indonesia's pragmatic approach, suggests a possible shift in the global security landscape. The question remains: will Indonesia successfully leverage its growing influence to advocate for a more just and equitable international order, or will it be constrained by the complexities of regional politics and the enduring dominance of established powers? This shift in global strategic focus demands continued scrutiny and analysis.