The Republic of Moldova, a small landlocked country nestled between Ukraine and Romania, has become the latest addition to India's eastern European diplomatic portfolio. As part of this strategic expansion, Dr. Manoj Kumar Mohapatra, currently Ambassador of India to Romania, has been concurrently accredited as the next Ambassador of India to Moldova, with residence in Bucharest.
This development matters significantly for global stability and security, particularly given India's growing role as a major player in regional and global affairs. As India strengthens its relationships with countries bordering Russia and China, it is also seeking to expand its influence in Eastern Europe, a region that has traditionally been dominated by Western powers such as the United States and European Union.
Historically, India's relations with Moldova have been limited, but the country has sought to establish stronger ties with New Delhi in recent years. In 2019, India signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Moldova aimed at promoting economic cooperation, trade, and investment. This move was seen as part of a broader effort by India to diversify its diplomatic relations beyond traditional alliances with countries like the United States and Russia.
Key stakeholders in this development include Romania's President Klaus Iohannis, who has been a vocal supporter of India's participation in regional organizations such as the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed concerns about India's growing economic ties with Moldova, which he views as part of a broader attempt by New Delhi to undermine Moscow's influence in the region.
Data from the Indian Ministry of External Affairs reveals that bilateral trade between India and Moldova stood at $143 million in 2022-23, up from just $10 million in 2017. While this represents a modest increase, it reflects India's growing interest in tapping into Eastern Europe's rich natural resources and promoting its own economic interests in the region.
According to a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), "India's emergence as a major player in Eastern Europe is likely to be driven by its desire to counterbalance Russian influence in the region." CSIS analysts note that India's growing presence in Eastern Europe will also require cooperation with other regional powers, including Romania and Ukraine.
"The signing of this MOU marks an important step forward for India-Moldova relations," said Amrita Prasad, Senior Policy Analyst at the National Institute of Public Policy (NIPP). "This partnership can help promote economic growth and investment in Moldova, while also enhancing India's regional influence."
In contrast, a more pessimistic view has been articulated by analysts at the Center for European Policy Affairs (CEPA), who warn that India's expansion into Eastern Europe may be driven by a desire to counterbalance Russia's own strategic interests. "While India's growing presence in Eastern Europe is likely to be driven by economic and security considerations, it also carries risks of entanglement with regional conflicts," said CEPA Director, Robert Seely.
As India continues to expand its diplomatic footprint in Eastern Europe, policymakers and analysts will be watching closely for signs of cooperation or competition between New Delhi, Moscow, and other regional powers. While the strategic implications are still unclear, one thing is certain: India's growing presence in Moldova represents a significant development in the complex web of international relations in this pivotal region.
Recent Developments
In recent months, there have been several developments that suggest India's interest in Eastern Europe runs deeper than mere economic cooperation. In June 2023, Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar visited Bucharest, where he held talks with Romanian President Iohannis on regional security and economic cooperation. The visit was seen as a significant step forward for bilateral relations between the two countries.
Meanwhile, India has also been actively promoting its participation in Eastern European forums such as the EEU and SCO. In March 2023, Indian Deputy National Security Adviser, Ajit Doval, attended a meeting of the EEU Council in Moscow, where he signed an MOU with Russian President Putin on cooperation in areas such as trade, investment, and security.
Conclusion
As India continues to expand its diplomatic reach in Eastern Europe, policymakers and analysts will be watching closely for signs of cooperation or competition between New Delhi, Moscow, and other regional powers. While the strategic implications are still unclear, one thing is certain: India's growing presence in Moldova represents a significant development in the complex web of international relations in this pivotal region.
This pivot in India's foreign policy reflects a broader shift towards "emerging power diplomacy," as outlined by Dr. Ian Bremmer, Senior Partner at Eurasia Group. "The key to success will lie in India's ability to engage with other emerging powers on an equal footing, promoting a more multipolar world order."