The recent visit by Secretary (CPV&OIA) to Riyadh, culminating in the India-GCC Political Dialogue, underscores a significant, and increasingly complex, strategic alignment between India and the Gulf Cooperation Council. The dialogue, held September 7-8, 2025, represents more than just routine diplomatic engagement; it’s a calculated effort to leverage shared interests and geopolitical realities within a rapidly shifting global order. The sheer volume of trade – a staggering $178 billion in FY 2024-25 – and the presence of nearly 10 million Indians in the GCC region paint a picture of interwoven economies and deep social connections. However, the long-term implications of this partnership are increasingly contingent on addressing evolving regional tensions and India’s own strategic ambitions.
Historically, relations between India and the GCC have been characterized by mutual respect and burgeoning trade. The establishment of the India-GCC Joint Action Plan (JAP) 2024-2028, a direct consequence of the 2024 Strategic Dialogue, reflects a commitment to expanding cooperation across multiple sectors. Initially focused on political dialogue, security collaboration, and economic partnerships, the JAP’s success hinges on its ability to translate high-level agreements into concrete outcomes. The discussions during the 2025 dialogue centered on the implementation of the JAP, particularly within the framework of security concerns and the ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East.
A key element driving this renewed engagement is India’s expanding strategic footprint. India’s pursuit of greater influence in the Indo-Pacific region and its increasing reliance on Gulf energy imports necessitate a robust partnership with the GCC. Saudi Arabia, in particular, has emerged as a key player in this dynamic, significantly increasing its investments in India’s infrastructure and defense sectors. The ongoing talks regarding a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between India and the GCC are poised to be a watershed moment, potentially unlocking further trade opportunities and solidifying economic ties. “The FTA is not simply about tariffs,” notes Dr. Fatima Al-Malki, Senior Fellow at the Gulf Research Center. “It’s about establishing a rules-based framework for a deepening economic relationship, addressing issues like intellectual property and regulatory harmonization.”
However, the partnership isn’t without challenges. The ongoing conflicts in Yemen and Syria, alongside broader regional rivalries involving Iran, continue to exert significant pressure on the GCC. India’s own policy of neutrality, while prioritizing good relations with all parties, can be perceived as a lack of decisive action in addressing these crises. Furthermore, the GCC’s own internal dynamics – particularly the evolving relationship between Saudi Arabia and the UAE – present a complex backdrop for India’s engagement. “India needs to calibrate its approach carefully,” states Ahmed Al-Qarni, a geopolitical analyst at the Institute for Strategic Studies in Riyadh. “Maintaining balanced relationships within the GCC will be crucial to ensuring India’s strategic interests are protected.”
Recent developments further complicate the landscape. The ongoing energy transition, while presenting new opportunities for India to secure alternative energy sources from the GCC, also necessitates significant investment in renewable energy infrastructure. This shift could alter the balance of power within the partnership, potentially leading to a more technologically-driven collaboration. Moreover, the rise of China’s influence in the region – particularly its deepening economic ties with Saudi Arabia – adds another layer of competition.
Looking ahead, the short-term (next 6 months) likely will see continued negotiations regarding the India-GCC FTA, with initial tariff reductions and the establishment of a joint committee to address regulatory hurdles. India will likely intensify its security collaboration with the GCC, particularly in areas related to maritime security and counter-terrorism. Longer-term (5-10 years), the success of the India-GCC partnership will depend on its ability to adapt to a more volatile geopolitical environment and to forge a shared vision for regional stability. The deepening of technological cooperation—particularly in renewable energy and digital technologies—could become a defining characteristic of the relationship. Failure to address the underlying security challenges or to proactively navigate the emerging geopolitical landscape could lead to a divergence in priorities and a weakening of the partnership’s fundamental foundations. The key challenge for India will be maintaining a strategic posture that simultaneously supports its own security interests and contributes to a more stable and prosperous Middle East – a task made significantly more complex by the relentless shifts in global power. The next six months will undoubtedly prove pivotal, demonstrating whether India’s strategic engagement with the GCC will solidify as a critical pillar of its foreign policy or succumb to the pressures of a changing world.