The specter of escalating global instability demands a pragmatic reassessment of European foreign policy, particularly concerning the protracted conflicts in Ukraine and the humanitarian crisis unfolding in Gaza. Recent developments reveal a strategic recalibration, driven by shifting geopolitical alliances, evolving security concerns, and a demonstrable lack of unified action, exposing a critical vulnerability in the Western security architecture. The EU’s response, while demonstrating commitment to both crises, is fragmented and lacks the decisive momentum needed to alter the trajectory of these conflicts and address their reverberations across the international order.
The crisis in Ukraine has become a crucible for European strategic priorities. Following the initial outpouring of solidarity in 2022, a discernible shift has occurred. While France, under Minister Dubois, continues to advocate for Ukrainian sovereignty, the scope and effectiveness of European support are increasingly questioned. Data released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicates a 17% decline in foreign direct investment in Ukraine over the past year, attributable in part to the uncertain security environment and the logistical complexities of receiving EU aid. This financial strain underscores the economic consequences of a prolonged conflict and highlights the potential for reduced support in the coming months. The “shadow fleet,” referring to the clandestine maritime transport of goods, including weapons, circumventing official channels, represents a significant challenge to Western sanctions and further complicates efforts to exert pressure on Russia.
The parallel crisis in Gaza presents a similarly complex set of challenges. The October 20, 2025, EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting, as outlined in the press release, signals a renewed emphasis on the two-state solution, a strategy that has long been hampered by a lack of sustained political will and operational support. “We need to move beyond rhetoric and deliver tangible assistance,” stated Dr. Evelyn Hayes, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s International Security Programme, in a recent interview. “Simply advocating for a ceasefire is insufficient; it requires a comprehensive approach that addresses the root causes of the conflict and supports the long-term stability of the region.” The demand for increased humanitarian access to Gaza, exceeding 500,000 metric tons of aid per month – a figure repeatedly emphasized by organizations like the United Nations – is struggling to materialize due to ongoing security concerns and bureaucratic obstacles.
Several key stakeholders are contributing to this dynamic. Russia, leveraging its influence within the United Nations Security Council, continues to block resolutions that would condemn its actions and hold it accountable. The United States, while providing substantial military and financial assistance to Ukraine, has adopted a more cautious approach to Gaza, prioritizing the safety of its own citizens and navigating the complex political landscape within the Arab world. The European Union, tasked with coordinating a unified response, is hampered by internal divisions and a lack of a clear strategic vision. "The EU’s approach has been reactive rather than proactive," argues Dr. Samir Benali, Professor of Political Science at Sciences Po, Paris. “It’s struggling to translate diplomatic pressure into concrete results on the ground.”
Looking ahead, the next six months will likely see a continued stalemate in Ukraine, characterized by incremental gains for both sides and no significant breakthroughs in negotiations. The European Union’s ability to maintain its level of support will depend heavily on the evolving security situation and the resilience of the Ukrainian economy. Within Gaza, the humanitarian crisis is projected to worsen, with projections indicating a further increase in displacement and a heightened risk of disease outbreaks. The potential for a broader regional conflict remains a significant concern.
Over the next five to ten years, a more fundamental shift in European foreign policy is anticipated. The crisis in Ukraine has exposed the limits of European power and the vulnerability of the transatlantic alliance. The EU will need to develop a more sustainable and effective strategy for managing its foreign policy engagements, one that is grounded in realistic assessments of its capabilities and limitations. Furthermore, a renewed commitment to multilateralism and strategic partnerships will be crucial for addressing the complex challenges facing the international order. The European Union’s ability to navigate this turbulent period will undoubtedly shape the future of European security and its role in the world. The challenge lies in translating diplomatic statements into decisive action – a critical component of a credible and influential foreign policy.