The relentless flooding triggered by Cyclones Fytia and Gezani in Madagascar serves as a stark, visceral reminder of the escalating humanitarian crises engulfing the Sahel region – a zone increasingly defined by instability, resource scarcity, and the strategic ambitions of external actors. This intensifying vulnerability represents a significant threat to regional security, disrupting established alliances and demanding a comprehensive, urgent reassessment of European and African engagement. The situation underscores a fundamental truth: the challenges in the Sahel are not merely localized disasters; they are symptoms of a deeply fractured geopolitical landscape with ramifications for global security and international cooperation.
The underlying fragility of the Sahel stems from a confluence of factors, largely rooted in the post-colonial era. Following independence in the 1960s, many Sahelian nations inherited weak governance structures, coupled with significant economic inequalities and a lack of diversified economies dependent on agriculture – an industry increasingly vulnerable to climate change and extremist exploitation. The collapse of the centrally planned economies of the Soviet Union in the 1990s further exacerbated these issues, removing a key source of support for many regional governments. Simultaneously, the rise of transnational criminal networks – trafficking in drugs, weapons, and people – has undermined state authority and fuelled corruption, creating a permissive environment for non-state actors.
Historically, the region has been shaped by colonial legacies, with France maintaining a dominant influence through military and economic ties – a relationship now increasingly contested. The establishment of the Francafrique, characterized by political and economic alignment, cemented France’s strategic position and, arguably, contributed to a lack of democratic accountability in many Sahelian states. The CFA franc, pegged to the French currency, has been a source of contention, viewed by some as a tool of economic subordination.
The Rise of Non-State Actors and the ECOMEX Framework
Over the past two decades, the vacuum created by weak governance has been systematically filled by a diverse range of non-state actors, most notably extremist groups like Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) and Ansarul Islam, affiliated with al-Qaeda. These groups have exploited local grievances, including poverty, unemployment, and perceived marginalization, to recruit fighters and expand their territorial control. The emergence of the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) further complicated the security landscape.
In 2013, France launched Operation Serval, a military intervention aimed at degrading extremist capabilities and supporting the Malian government. This operation was followed by a broader European-led effort, Operation Barkhane, which involved military advisors, training, and logistical support. However, Operation Barkhane, which concluded in 2022, ultimately proved largely ineffective in achieving its stated objectives.
The ‘ECOMEX’ framework, established in 2014, represented a shift in approach, seeking to foster economic partnerships to address the root causes of instability. This involved supporting regional infrastructure projects, promoting trade, and encouraging investment – an initiative met with varying degrees of success, hampered by security concerns and a lack of consistent political commitment. As Dr. Catherine Fiandino, Senior Fellow at the International Crisis Group, notes, “ECOMEX fundamentally failed to translate into tangible benefits for local populations, leaving the underlying drivers of conflict largely unaddressed.”
Recent data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) reveals a continued escalation of violence across the Sahel, with a 45% increase in conflict events in 2023 compared to 2022. This surge is linked to the proliferation of armed groups, the involvement of foreign mercenaries, and the ongoing competition for resources, particularly land and water. The presence of Russian mercenaries, contracted by the Wagner Group, has further destabilized the region and complicated the dynamics of international engagement.
Europe’s Shifting Priorities and the Emerging Sahel Global Security Force (SGSF)
The withdrawal of Operation Barkhane has forced European nations to re-evaluate their security commitments in the Sahel. While France continues to provide diplomatic and humanitarian support, there is a growing recognition of the limitations of military intervention alone. The recent proposal for a Sahel Global Security Force (SGSF), a multinational force composed of troops from various African nations, alongside European partners, aims to provide long-term security support, but faces significant logistical and political challenges.
“The key now is to move beyond a purely military response and embrace a holistic approach that addresses the complex drivers of instability,” argues Professor Mamadou Keita, a leading expert in African security at the University of Dakar. “This requires strengthening governance institutions, promoting economic development, and tackling climate change – all while fostering genuine partnerships with local communities.”
Within the past six months, the situation has seen a notable increase in the operational capacity of groups like the Gatia Union, a coalition of armed groups operating primarily in the north of Mali, effectively pushing back French forces in the region. Simultaneously, China has significantly expanded its influence in the Sahel, primarily through economic investment and security cooperation, further complicating the geopolitical landscape.
Looking Ahead: A Precarious Future
Short-term, the next six months are likely to see continued violence, humanitarian crises, and the gradual implementation of the SGSF, if it can secure sufficient buy-in and resources. However, the force’s ability to effectively stabilize the region remains highly uncertain. Long-term, the Sahel faces a precarious future, characterized by protracted conflict, displacement, and the potential for state failure. The rise of climate change, exacerbating existing vulnerabilities, will undoubtedly deepen these challenges.
The unraveling of the Sahel represents a significant strategic test for Europe and Africa. The region’s instability has the potential to spill over into neighboring countries, impacting regional security and potentially contributing to broader geopolitical tensions. It demands a sustained commitment to diplomacy, a recognition of local agency, and a willingness to address the underlying structural issues driving conflict. The question remains: can the international community forge a truly collaborative and sustainable solution, or will the Sahel remain a zone of perpetual crisis?