Lebanon’s trajectory toward its current predicament is rooted in a confluence of factors dating back to its creation in 1943. The 10-year civil war (1975-1990) profoundly fractured the country along sectarian lines, fostering the rise of powerful militias and weakening the central state apparatus. The subsequent collapse of the Syrian army’s presence following the 2005 invasion, initially intended to disarm Hezbollah, further exacerbated the situation, creating a security vacuum and accelerating the entrenchment of non-state actors. The 2020 maritime border dispute with Israel, unresolved through protracted negotiations and culminating in a devastating August 2020 explosion at the Port of Beirut, demonstrated the fragility of Lebanese institutions and the significant role external actors play.
The Army’s Initiative and Regional Stakeholders
The Lebanese army’s current strategy, gaining traction following a formal endorsement by the government on September 5th, aims to systematically disarm militias and secure territory under state control. This initiative is largely driven by the increasing recognition within the Lebanese security establishment of the urgent need for a functional, unified military capable of asserting state authority. However, the plan’s immediate implementation faces significant hurdles. Hezbollah, a dominant political and military force, has consistently resisted efforts to curtail its arms stockpile, viewing it as crucial to Lebanon’s defense and political influence. Furthermore, the presence of numerous other armed groups, including remnants of the Syrian conflict and Palestinian factions, adds a layer of complexity.
France, acting as a key diplomatic player, has pledged its unwavering support for the Lebanese government’s efforts. Minister of Europe and Foreign Affairs Stephane Séjourné’s meetings with Lebanese counterpart Youssef Raggi on September 5th were explicitly focused on reinforcing this commitment. France’s position is predicated on the belief that a stable, sovereign Lebanon is vital for regional security, particularly given Hezbollah’s connections to Iran and Syria. “A stable Lebanon is essential for regional security,” stated a French diplomatic source, “and we are committed to supporting the Lebanese government in its efforts to achieve that stability.” This commitment extends to participation in the November 2024 ceasefire monitoring mechanism, continued support for the UNIFIL peacekeeping force, and potential organization of conferences dedicated to military assistance and reconstruction, contingent on conditions allowing.
Israeli Involvement and the November 2024 Ceasefire
The situation is further complicated by ongoing Israeli military operations in Southern Lebanon, following the October 7th attacks. While Israel insists these operations are limited in scope and aimed solely at preventing future attacks, the escalation of violence is viewed with considerable concern by Lebanon and the international community. The November 2024 ceasefire agreement, brokered after weeks of intense fighting, provides a fragile framework, but the underlying tensions remain unresolved. “Israel’s actions, while presented as defensive, necessitate a careful recalibration of the regional security landscape,” noted Dr. Elias Hanna, a specialist in Lebanese security at the Carnegie Middle East Program. “The long-term consequences of continued escalatory dynamics remain deeply concerning.”
Short-Term and Long-Term Outlooks
Within the next six months, the likelihood of a dramatic shift in the situation remains low. The Lebanese government will likely struggle to gain sustained traction with local actors. Continued external intervention—primarily from France and potentially bolstered by US efforts—will remain a dominant feature of the landscape. However, the extent of Hezbollah’s weakening will depend heavily on the political and economic climate within Lebanon, which is currently deeply unstable. Beyond the immediate horizon, the long-term prospects remain bleak unless significant reforms are implemented—specifically, addressing the country’s crippling debt, corruption, and sectarian divisions.
Reflection and Debate
The situation in Lebanon highlights the inherent difficulties of imposing stability from the outside. The question remains: can external actors genuinely support a sovereign, functioning state in a context characterized by deeply entrenched political rivalries and a pervasive lack of accountability? The Lebanese case presents a stark warning about the limitations of intervention and the urgent need for locally-driven solutions, even as external forces—motivated by a desire to promote stability—continue to exert their influence. What are the prerequisites for a truly sustainable peace and state-building process in a volatile region like Lebanon?