The Expanding Threat Landscape
The global trade in illicit small arms has dramatically evolved over the past two decades. Historically dominated by state-to-state transfers and criminal networks operating in traditional transit routes, the problem has been significantly complicated by the rise of non-state armed groups, increasingly reliant on self-procurement, and, crucially, by technological advancements. The proliferation of 3D printing, for example, offers a decentralized means of weapon production, bypassing established controls and dramatically lowering the barrier to entry for armed actors. Furthermore, the increased availability of commercially-produced firearms, often diverted from legal markets, contributes to the problem, particularly in regions with weak regulatory frameworks. Recent data from the Small Arms Survey indicates a continued upward trend in the availability of small arms in conflict zones, despite international efforts. This trend is compounded by the increasing use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs), often incorporating salvaged firearms, further intensifying the danger.
Multilateral Responses and Emerging Challenges
The international community’s response to illicit arms trafficking has largely centered around a tiered approach. The Programme of Action to Combat Small Arms and Light Weapons (PAPSA), established in 2001, serves as the foundational framework, supplemented by the Arms Trade Treaty (ATT), aiming to regulate the international arms trade, and the Global Framework of Action (GFA), encompassing various instruments for arms control and disarmament. However, enforcement remains inconsistent, and the effectiveness of these mechanisms is increasingly challenged by the evolving nature of the threat.
As highlighted in a report by the United Nations Secretariat, “Diversion of illicit small arms and light weapons persists across the entire weapon lifecycle – from the point of manufacture, transfer, and storage, to their eventual use or disposal.” The UK government’s commitment to bolstering these efforts is evident through initiatives like the AmTag pilot programme in Somalia. This innovative program, employing chemical taggants to render ammunition traceable, represents a significant step toward enhancing stockpile management and, consequently, disrupting the supply chains of illicit weapons. The UK’s support for the Nairobi Protocol, facilitated by the Regional Centre on Small Arms and Light Weapons (RECSA) and the UN Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR), exemplifies a regional approach, recognizing that localized solutions are essential to tackling the problem effectively. “Through cross-regional collaboration to enforce arms embargoes, improve tracing, and strengthen stockpile management,” a senior official at the UK stated.
The Human Cost and the Shifting Dynamics
Beyond the strategic implications, the proliferation of illicit small arms has devastating consequences for civilian populations. The UN estimates that “70 to 90 percent of conflict-related sexual violence incidents involve weapons and firearms,” highlighting the direct correlation between armed violence and gender-based violence. The focus on Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) agenda underscores the need to integrate gender considerations into all aspects of arms control efforts. Empowering women to participate in peace negotiations, security sector reform, and post-conflict stabilization is not merely a matter of ethical imperative but a strategic necessity. “Women should be at the centre of these efforts,” emphasizes the UN Special Advisor on WPS.
Recent developments further complicate the situation. The rise of cyber warfare and the potential for weaponized drones represent new fronts in the fight against illicit arms. The Programme of Action’s newly established expert group on emerging technologies is attempting to address these challenges, focusing on the regulatory frameworks needed to manage the risks posed by polymer, modular, and 3D-printed weapons. However, the decentralized nature of these technologies, combined with the difficulty in tracing their origins and movements, presents a significant obstacle. “The future of arms control will demand a proactive, adaptive approach that anticipates and addresses emerging threats,” a representative from UNIDIR commented during a recent briefing.
Short-Term and Long-Term Projections
In the short-term (next 6 months), we anticipate continued instability in conflict zones across Africa and the Middle East, driven in part by the persistent flow of illicit small arms. The rise in 3D-printed weapon production will likely accelerate, particularly in regions with weak governance and limited access to conventional weaponry. A key challenge will be coordinating international efforts to counter this trend, requiring increased intelligence sharing and a concerted effort to disrupt the supply chains of these emerging technologies.
Looking further ahead (5–10 years), the challenge will only intensify. Climate change, resource scarcity, and demographic pressures are exacerbating existing tensions, creating fertile ground for armed conflict and, consequently, increasing demand for illicit small arms. The ability of the international community to develop effective regulatory frameworks for emerging technologies – including 3D printing and cyber weapons – will be crucial. Moreover, long-term stability will depend on addressing the root causes of conflict, promoting inclusive governance, and investing in sustainable development initiatives. Failure to do so will likely result in a continued, and potentially escalating, global arms crisis.
The relentless flow of illicit small arms represents a profound test of our collective capacity to maintain peace and security. It demands a comprehensive, adaptive, and genuinely multilateral response – one that recognizes the evolving nature of the threat and prioritizes the protection of vulnerable populations. Acknowledging this issue is the first step to fostering critical discussion about the ongoing challenges to global stability.